The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 600 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LIKELY LATE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET DECREASING TO SEA LEVEL LATE. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

FRIDAY...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

Temperatures have remained fairly constant over the last 3 days.

There has been considerable windldoading over the last 36 hours with perfect wind speeds between 20-the mid 40's.

We have received about 18cm of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit over the last 48 hours.

The new snow combined with considerable loading winds have created some avalanche danger in the backcountry. Yesterday human triggered avalanches were present in windloaded areas.

Avalanche danger remains Moderate today.

With very little snow in the forecast, constant temps, and light to moderate winds natural avalanches are unlikey yet possible.

Human triggered avalanches remain likely in windloaded areas.

Use caution if you head into the backcountry. Yesterday reports of slabs being triggered ranged in size quite a bit. But one skier triggered slab that propagated to over a meter deep was reported.

Cornice Fall Avalanches:

Cornices are the fatal attraction of the mountains, their beauty matched only by their danger. Cornices are elegant, cantilevered snow structures formed by wind drifting snow onto the downwind side of an obstacle such as a ridgeline. Similar to icefall avalanches, the weight of a falling cornice often triggers an avalanche on the slope below, or the cornice breaks into hundreds of pieces and forms its own avalanche?or both. Be aware that cornice fragments often \"fan out\" as they travel downhill, traveling more than 30 degrees off of the fall line. Cornices tend to become unstable during storms, especially with wind, or during times of rapid warming or prolonged melting. Each time the wind blows, it extends the cornice outward, thus, the fresh, tender and easily-triggered part of the cornice usually rests precariously near the edge while the hard, more stable section usually forms the root.

Similar to icefall avalanches, cornice fall avalanches don?t kill very many people. And similar to slab avalanches, the ones who get into trouble almost always trigger the avalanche, in this case, by traveling too close to the edge of the cornice. Cornices have a very nasty habit of breaking farther back than you expect. NEVER walk up to the edge of a drop off without first checking it out from a safe place. Many people get killed this way. It's kind of like standing on the roof of a tall, rickety building and walking out to the edge for a better view. Sometimes the edge is made of concrete but sometimes the edge is made of plywood cantilevered out over nothing but air. It feels solid until, zoom, down you go. Check it out first.

But cornices aren't all bad. You can use cornices to your advantage by intentionally triggering a cornice to test the stability of the slope below or to intentionally create an avalanche to provide an escape route off of a ridge.