Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016
Date Issued: | 2013-02-15 |
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Danger: | 2 |
Trend: | 2 |
Probability: | 3 |
Size: | 2 |
Problem: | 0 |
Discussion: | The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW LATE. SATURDAY...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY...BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received 37mm (1.45\")of precipitation in the last 24 hours and the forecast calls for as much as 13m(.5\") more by noon. The Mt Roberts Tram weather Station saw quite warm temperatures yesterday with a 2+ degree rise overnight we are at +2c at the tram summit currently. Temperatures were a little cooler during a big portion of the precip and yet we only saw just a few inches of new snow accumulation. The Mt Juneau Station which is 700' higher is also showing only very little new snow. You can assume at upper elevations there is a bit more new snow. Temperatures are forecast to remain pretty much the same throughout the day with cooling into the evening. The precip rates should fall off after the noon hour with models showing 1/2\" in the next 6 hours and only 1/2\" in the 24 hours following that. We saw moderate windloading throughout the cycle sure to have created some weak pockets at upper elevations on windloaded slopes. Avalanche danger is moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely due to mostly rain at our elevations yet they are possible in very high upper mountain starting zones. These would not be excessively large avalanches as they would not have the ability to entrain much additional snow as they run out of new snow at lower elevations. Potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible in windloaded pockets at upper elevations on lee slopes. Use good terrain selection out there and recognize that if your finding enough new snow to enjoy... there is enough new snow to avalanche... |
Tip: | en?train Definition of ENTRAIN to draw along with or after oneself to draw in and transport (as solid particles or gas) by the flow of a fluid to incorporate (air bubbles) into concrete to determine or modify the phase or period of |