The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...PERIODS OF RAIN BECOMING STEADY AND HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET RISING ABOVE 1500 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

We have received roughly 2\" of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and above elevations over the last 36 hours.

Temperatures have risen close to the point of freezing at that elevation once again.

Winds have been from 20-45mph at the Eaglecrest Summit over the last 12 hours with the winds along the channel being quite a bit lower. Yet windloading is a possibility at both locations.

This morning around the noon hour the precipitation rates are predicted to pick up a great deal. From noon today to noon tomorrow we expect to see as much as 1.7\" of precipitation at mountain elevations.

This will come in with warm temperatures which will start to load the little bit of new snow we have on the groung quite quickly.

Right now the concern is for small windloaded pockets on lee slopes... as this new storm builds we will be concerned with a few things. Rain on snow at lower elevations. Heavy snow on the small windpockets that exist on upper elevations.

The loading rate will be an issue at upper elevations. This will be quite a bit of new snow load over the next 36 hours at elevations that receive new snow.

Natural avalanches are unlikely this morning yet becomming more possible once the precip rates increase and the new snow load adds up.

Human triggered avalanches are possible in very isolated pockets up high and this potential is building as this new storm starts to stack up today into tomorrow.

Danger levels will be increasing over the next 24 hours so be careful out there.

This afternoon into tomorrow it is a good idea to avoid the Flume Trail.

Persistent Weak Layers:

Certain weak layers tend to stabilize quickly after a storm while other kinds of weak layers take much longer to stabilize. The three most notorious, persistent weak layer include: faceted snow, depth hoar and surface hoar. As you can imagine, persistent weak layers cause most avalanche accidents because the avalanche danger can linger several days after a storm, just waiting for a trigger.

The presence of a persistent weak layer, alone, doesn?t necessarily mean danger. But If a buried, persistent weak layer also produces a high quality shear and is also weak on your strength tests, you should definitely avoid avalanche terrain where those conditions exist.