TODAY: PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ... BECOMING ALL RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15MPH.

TONIGHT: PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN TEH EVENING ... BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY. LOWS 27 TO 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

Not much has changed since yesterday. Temps continue to hover around freezing at, or just below, the start zones. Precipitation has been minimal. Southeast winds have remained steady, but moderate. Though they are now starting to trend towards the east.

Pockets of instability remain out there in the form of wind slabs on a good running surface. As those potentially wet out with rising temps, or gain more wind loaded snow, small naturals are possible. However slides large enough to impact the urban zone are unlikely.

While the character of the snowpack retains a number of crusts throughout, the moist/dry nature of the snow changes with elevation.

Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches are unlikely in zones below freezing, and possible underneath the rain line. Human triggered avalanches possible. Generally stable snow. Isolated areas of instability. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised. Backcountry Travel is generally safe. Normal caution is advised with particular attention to wind affected slopes.

CRUST FACET COMBOS

Weak faceted crystals are often observed near hard crust layers in the snowpack. The combination of weak facets adjacent to a hard ice crust often creates dangerous, persistent, and tricky avalanche conditions. In Southeast Alaska this combination often creates most of our buried persistent weak layers.

Two processes that can create or contribute to this dangerous layering scenario are radiation recrystallization and melt-layer recrystallization (the latter is sometimes called wet layer recrystallization). These near-surface faceting processes are described in Bruce Tremper's widely available book, Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain.

In addition to these processes, it is believed that the denser and more conductive ice adjacent to the less conductive snow might concentrate temperature gradients next to the crust (Adams and Brown, 1988; 1990). This phenomenon could result in the enhanced faceted growth near the ice crust long after near-surface recrystallization has diminished. This layering may also allow faceted growth to continue in a thermal environment that is generally conducive to rounding. Such as a maritime snowpack.