The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW LATE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

We have received 42mm of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit in the last 3 days. This has only left us with 22cm of new snow. That is almost double the normal snow density.

The storm started with a little dry light snow then quickly turned into a warm wet near freezing condition.

We received 14mm of this precip in the last 24 hours with essentially no net gain in the snowfall accumulation at tram summit elevations. Eaglecrest stayed slightly cooler and is snowing about 5cm of new snow during this same period.

Temperatures are predicted to stay this warm for the next 24+ hours. We are also expected to see as much as 1.03\" of precip in the next 24 hours.

This is the largest weight load we have placed on the snowpack in quite some time. At lower elevations where this is coming in as all rain it will eat at the bonds in the snowpack and we may see small natural avalanches over time.

At upper elevations where this is still coming in as some snow it is still adding tremendous stress to the snowpack that has several weak layers already in place. It should be interesting to see how this new load affects these weak layers.

Winds are also out of the SE at 20-35mph which could add to the instability at upper elevations on lee slopes.

Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE today into tomorrow with these warm temps and heavy precip rates.

Natural avalanches possible. Human triggered avalanches probable.

Be Careful out there. Avoid walking along the Flume Trail.

Avoid parking along Thane Road at snowslide creek.

Wet Snow Avalanche:

Most avalanche professionals make a hard distinction between dry snow and wet snow avalanches because they are such different beasts. They are caused by different processes, they fail and fracture differently, they are triggered differently and they move differently down the slope. Really, there is a continuum between wet and dry avalanches and professional workers use the words: dry, damp, moist, wet and saturated to describe the continuum. Wet avalanches cause relatively few avalanche fatalities, consequently, they are studied less and are not as well understood.

What causes them?

Dry Avalanches-Caused by putting too much additional stress on the snowpack
Wet Avalanches- Caused by decreasing the strength of the snowpack

How do they involve people?

Dry Avalanches-Triggered by the victims or someone in the victim?s party in 90 percent of cases
Wet Avalanches- Difficult for people to trigger. Most accidents are from natural avalanches

What are the contributing weather factors?

Dry Avalanches- Usually loading of wind drifted snow or loading of new snow
Wet Avalanches- Usually by rain, prolonged melting by sun or very warm temperatures

How do they flow?

Dry Avalanches- Fast (80 mph or so) usually with a dust cloud
Wet Avalanches- Slower (10-40 mph) like concrete and usually without a dust cloud

We are currently in a place that we could see a spectrum of avalanches anything from Dry to wet... Some even starting as dry avalanches and ending in wet depending on elevation change.