The National Weather Service Forecasts-

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM AKST FRIDAY...

TODAY...SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS 24 TO 34. EAST WIND 5 MPH.

TONIGHT...SNOW...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 7 INCHES. LOWS 23 TO 33 IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADY AND RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EAST WIND 5 MPH.

FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 36.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

We have seen quite a bit of wind over the last week with no new snow accumulations.

Large areas have been stripped of snow in the urban enviroment. Dangers are low at this time.

Look to see not only stripped areas, but thin snowpack in large open rocky areas near summit and ridgeline. Also look to see some large windloaded pockets on lee slopes.

Spatial variability is quite high at this time.

As we see this snow fall event over the next day, it will be coming to rest on a variety of conditions. Some of them more stable than others.

As temperatures rise over the next 24 hours and we receive this new snow avalanche danger will increase.

The danger level will be determined by how much light dry snow we see before the warming, how much warming we see, and how much overall new snow is accumulated. The windloading will also play a role in this as the danger levels increase.

Today is pretty safe but with conditions changing throughout the day you will want to reasses danger levels later in the day on your own.

Tomorrow we will have to start making much better assessments on snowpack conditions, spatial variability, and where the safe spots may be.

Enjoy the new snow. Hope the warming is slow and limited.

ENJOY YOUR DAY.

With temps increasing over the next 24 hours we always take into consideration UPSIDE DOWN STORMS.

Upside-Down Storm:

Lucky for us, most storms deposit new snow with denser snow on the bottom and lighter snow on top?just the way we like it. This is because most snow comes from cold fonts, which usually start out warm and windy but end up cold and calm. But sometimes snowstorms deposit denser, stiffer snow on top of softer, fluffier snow. We call this ?upside down? snow. We often call it ?slabby? or ?punchy? meaning that you punch through the surface slab into the softer snow below, making for difficult riding and trail breaking conditions. It also means that we need to carefully monitor avalanche conditions within the new snow because?by definition?a denser slab has been recently deposited on top of a weaker layer, which should make anyone?s avalanche antennae stand at attention. Most instabilities within upside-down snow stabilize within a day or two.

The kind of weather conditions that often produce upside-down snow include warm fronts, storms in which the wind blows harder at the end of the storm than the beginning, or storms that end with an unstable airmass, which can precipitate a lot of graupel within instability showers.