The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. EAST WIND TO 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 4 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 8 TO 12 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35.
NORTH WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

We received 28cm (11\") at the Mt Roberts Tram Wx station in the last 24 hours and about 20mm or precipitation.. Roughly 7% pow... The Eaglecrest UAS site is only showing around 20cm (8\") during that same time.

Winds were considerable from 15-35mph out of the SSE then shifting to the East early this AM. Look to see considerable windloading on the N-W aspects today.

Temperatures have remained fairly constant.

With as much as 17\" of additional snow in the forecast for the next 24 hours in our mountain regions and continued winds avalanche DANGER IS HIGH at this time. The likeliness of natural avalanche will build more over time as this new snow starts to accumulate to higher volumes especially tonight into tomorrow.

Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural avalanches are likely especially as we start to see greater accumulations.

Human triggered avalanches very likely.

Early on today we may not see much in the way of natural avalanches but conditions will continue to build.

If we should happen to see natural releases of our 4 day possible storm total by the end of this event the slabs could be as great as 33\" (16\" in last 72 hours plus another 17\" possible in the next 24) in depth plus whatever windloading may have occured.

Odds are good that the first 8\" will remain in place so the slides may not be quite as large. But once they get rolling there is the potential to strip down to the lower weak layers in place in certain spots.

Danger on Thane road is HIGH today. It is a great day to limit or avoid travel in that cooridor. Especially tonight into tomorrow as we start to see greater new snow accumulations.

Also be aware that the Flume and Perseverance Trails will have great danger for the next 24-48 hours.

Today in the urban enviroment slides are not predicted to occur right away or expected to be large. Yet once again from tonight into tomorrow these slide sizes will be increasing and we will have greater danger.

The best way to limit your avalanche danger is to simply limit your exposure by avoiding avalanche prone areas.

Temperatures will rise slightly tomorrow and we predict that by mid day tomorrow danger levels will have peaked. After the mid day diurnal fluctuation in temperatures we expect to see some gradual cooling and reduction in the precipitation rates. Hopefully danger will start to decrease at that time.

Have a great day, Drive Safe, and be EXTREMELY cautious in the mountains should you choose to venture out.

Remember good safety practices, spotters watching partners from islands of safety to islands of safety, Always carrying your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovels.

Consider staying to lower angle slopes, more trees, and less exposure especially to terrain traps.

Avalanche Safety Checklist-

BEFORE YOU LEAVE
? Expand your knowledge - take an avalanche awareness class.
? Avalanche beacons, probes & shovels? Know how to use them & practice.
? Check weather / avalanche forecast / local authorities.
? Develop broad mental image of the snowpack and danger you expect.
? Be sure your planned route is suitable for current and forecast conditions.
? Choose competent, compatible partners with similar ability, experience, goals.
? Have several alternative objectives to provide other options for success.
? Leave trip itinerary with family or friend.

IN THE AREA - Reassess all continually!
Human Factors - Are there issues that overshadow wise decisions?
? Trip Goals: Is a single objective (a summit, a slope) blinding you?
? Feeling too complacent, too familiar, invincible? Watch it!
? More people does not mean safer snow - avoid herd mentality.
? Objective not subjective decisions - don?t base decisions on emotion.
? Are your sport skills outpacing your avalanche skills?
Reassess continually.
Terrain - Is it suitable for avalanches?
? Slope Angle - Measure it! (30-45 degrees are most common)
? Slope Aspect - Leeward? Wind-loaded? Shaded? Sun-exposed?
? Slope Shape - Convex rolls? Open? Bowl? Gully? Corniced?
? Slope Anchors - Vegetation, Rock outcrops, Benches: Are they anchors or weak points?
? What are the consequences if a slide releases?
? Terrain Traps - Narrow gullies, cliffs, crevasses, trees, rocks, creeks, lakes.
Reassess continually.
Snowpack - Might it slide? Is it unstable?

Obvious Signs of Instability
? Recent avalanches on similar slopes.
? ?Whumphing? sounds or shooting cracks.
? Consistent ?Very Easy? or ?Easy? failures upon testing.
? HIGH or EXTREME Avalanche Forecast Danger Level.

Other Clues of Instability
? Fresh snow in the past 24 hours.
? Sudden temperature rise or first sunshine on new snow.
? Consistent ?Easy? or ?Moderate? failures upon testing.
? CONSIDERABLE Avalanche Forecast Danger Level.
? Moderate or low danger do not mean NO DANGER.
Reassess continually.

Weather - Has it, is it, or will it contribute to instability?
? Precipitation - Type, amount, intensity, duration.
? Wind - Windblown snow loading lee slopes, further stressing snowpack?
? Temperature - Rising temps or sun causing loss of snow strength?
- Prolonged cold temps causing faceting?
Reassess continually. Trends in weather are most important; be aware of potential changes

TRAVEL - Reassess all continually!
? Avalanche beacon check at trailhead.
? Look at Terrain, Weather and Snowpack clues - speak up!
? Stay on ridge lines / flanks of open slopes.
? One person at a time crosses suspect slopes - cross high.
? Watch those crossing suspect slopes.
? Follow using the same track; move quickly between safe areas.
? Be ready to ditch gear that inhibits swimming motions: No pole straps or leashes; use releasable bindings.
? Continually look for escape routes - what if the slope releases?
? Choose safe rest areas & campsites - check for hidden tracks & runout zones -
consult map.
? When descending, always stop off to the side of any slope.
? Maintain situational awareness and Reassess continually.

IF CAUGHT - Reassess all continually!
? Call out!
? Attempt to escape toward flanks (sides).
? Ditch awkward gear.
? FIGHT, swim, grab a tree or rock, self-arrest.
? Keep mouth shut.
? When slowing, make strong thrust toward surface.
? Push one hand toward surface.
? Make air pocket in front of face with other hand.
? Try to dig yourself out.
? Attempt to remain calm.

RESCUE - Reassess all continually!
? Organize, appoint leader, avalanche lookout, question eyewitnesses (plan beforehand).
? Note who is missing.
? Assess further danger.
? Identify escape routes.
? All beacons to ?receive? mode.
? Establish and mark victim(s) last seen area(s).
? Search for surface clues - check them, then leave them in place.
? Focus search on major deposits and likely catchment areas below last seen area(s), around trees, rocks, bends in path, etc.
? Beacon Search What Who
Phase 1 obtain signal everyone
Phase 2 home in on signal everyone getting signal
Phase 3 pinpoint signal one searcher (others probe and dig)
? Probe for victim until strike is made.
? Manage digging so as not to re-shovel.
? Care for victim - First Aid ABC?s - keep victim warm.
? All beacons back to ?transmit? mode.
? Don?t contaminate site with your equipment.