The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 13 TO 19. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
INTERIOR PASSES AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. LOCAL WIND CHILL TO 10 BELOW.

TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 13 TO 19. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. BREEZY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOWS AROUND 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15
MPH.

We have received over 10\" of light new snow last Sunday into Monday at tram summit elevations. This new snow has now had some time to settle and bond to the old snow surface.

Temperatures fell throughout the storm and remain cold still.

Winds have been considerable for the last week and continue to load our urban paths. The longer this wind event lasts the less snow there is available for transport. So in time danger starts to decrease do to less rapid loading and time for settlement and bonding.

Winds are predicted to remain high today. The wind direction also directly favors wind slab development in our urban starting zones.

Monday during the beginning of the wind storm there was enough wind transport to start natural avalanches in many areas along Thane Road such as Snowslide Creek and Cross Bay.

Although some of the mass has now been reduced in those areas they can reload do to wind transport.

Also in areas that have not seen any silde activity such as the Berhands Path and Chop Gulley the danger is still present.

Monday the slabs started out as 8-10\" of low density soft slab. As this wind event continues the slab depth can grow do to wind transport of new snows into the starting zones. Also slab densities will build as long as this wind event continues. So it becomes slightly harder to trigger yet the force of the avalanche is increasing should it be triggered.

A greater concern comes in when we consider what this new wind slab is resting on.

Ths storm cycle started on February 8th. Temperatures rose by more than 8 degrees during the first part of the storm. This created an upside down snowpack with low density snow under heavier, harder snows on the surface. This creates a weak layer. This layer has had more time to settle and bond and continues to gain strength yet remains present. Recent avalanche activity has not shown anything propagating down to this deeper weak layer yet it could become reactive in the future if we see extreme weather.

Throughout last weeks storm we have received 150mm of precipitation which rests in over 80cm of new snows(over 2 1/2')after settlement. That does not take into consideration the windloading as well so in areas the slab thickness could be much greater.

There was quite a bit of natural activity in the first part of the storm removing some of the depth in certain starting zones which is a very good thing. But in areas where there was no activity there is now a weak layer present over 2 1/2' deep without even considering the windloading in areas.

So if we see the avalanche come in the top storm layers of 10+\" and windloading they will be fast avalanches creating a lot of additional stress on the snowpack under them.

This creates the possibility of then tearing down to the deeper weak layers in place. Recognize that although those deeper layers have had some time to settle and bond the weakness is still present.

Should we see avalanche activity down to this deeper weak layer, slide sizes could be quite large.

Recognize some of the factors leading to avalanche are present and danger continues due to windloading.

AVALANCHE DANGER IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME>

Natural avalanches are unlikely, yet possible, and human triggered avalanches are still quite possible.

These are still dangerous avalanche conditions. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Just this week there was a fatality on a MODERATE danger day in Montana. Please understand with triggers present avalanches are still possible.

Heightened avalanche conditions remain on specific terrain features. Be sure to evaluate snow and terrain carefully identifying features of concern.

Remember, Transceiver, Probe, Shovel and a well trained partner... There is safety in numbers if you use correct travel practices. Remember if you only place one person in the avalanche zones at a time you have a greater ability to respond in companion rescue should anything occur.