The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 300 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 41.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

SUNDAY...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

It was clear and cool late last week for several days. This comes following a week of rains to summit elevations.

The bottom of the snowpack is fairly solid in place. It has seen quite a bit of rain and developed drainage at lower elevations, while at higher elevations it remains frozen and solid.

Last Saturday we received almost 4\" of new snow at upper mountain elevations.

Monday we were able to see that this 4\" had created slab formations in our urban starting zones. Some of these slabs failed naturally and several are still hanging.

As we went through Tuesday and into Wednesday the avalanche danger rose as we started to place additional new snow on the few weak shallow slabs that are in place.

Even without the presence of the slabs and weak layer, as this storm cames in accompanied by warming temps over the last few days danger levels rose quite a bit.

We saw a 7 degree temperature rise over the first 60 hours of the storm. This was a Moderate warming trend.

Winds have averaged 10-25 during that time and were much higher on Douglas Island. These are moderate to considerable windloading conditions.

We have seen 44mm of precipitation in the last 48 hours(roughly 1.8\"). Which is a drop in Precip from the previous few days.

The first days of the storm left 49mm of precipitation/50cm of new snow at tram summit elevations. The last 68mm of moisture in the storm although near freezing temps(mostly +1)translated into only 8cm of new snow accumulation over the last 15 hours and settlement of nearly 10cm overall.

So although the snows at the beginning of the strom came in at under 10% densities you can see now the overall densities averages are much higher. You have a rather large brick sitting on a weaker layer.

This is a HIGH loading rate and as you can see. The last of the precip coming in the form of rain placed quite heavy dense snow on top of looser lighter snows up high.

Forecast precip models have been reduced slightly the last 48 hours.

Temperatures have fallen by 2 degrees and are expected to continue to fall over the next few days.

The large amount of new snow we saw has now had a few days to settle and bond with all the additional weight upon it. Yet there remains weakness in areas to be concerned with.

With the continued precipitation on top of the weak layer and upside down slab in place AVALANCHE DANGER IS CONSIDERABLE AT THIS TIME.

Natural avalanches are still possible while human triggered avalanches remain likely.

These are dangerous avalanche conditions. Most accidents happen during periods of CONSIDERABLE danger. Careful Snowpack Evaluations, Cautious Route Finding, and Conservative Decision Making are essential!!!

Please avoid spending time in Avalanche Zones such as the Flume Trail, Perseverance Trail.

Please avoid walking or jogging along Thane Road through avalanche paths.

Limit your danger by limiting your exposure.

Yesterday another portion of Thane Road slid and stopped short of the road. There is additional mass up there still with areas of weakness. Driving the road Thursday I saw groups of joggers and walkers heading through avalanche paths.

Please recognize you are at risk! This is not a safe place to be during periods of high danger.

Douglas Island saw quite a few avalanche the last 2 days, both natural and man made. Slides were ranging from 30 to 60cm and propagating widely. Running through trees and around terrain features. Cornices are weak and cornice falls have the ability to trigger larger slides. One cornice fall released a nearby slope over a meter deep.

A great deal or Woomphing and Cracking was seen in the snowpack during travel.

Forecast precipitation rates are predicted to fall. As we go through tonight in to tomorrow temps are also predicted to fall.

This weak layer may settle and bond but do not assume anything without doing the research to make good decisions on your own.

Time is our friend as this storm cools and precip rates subside we should see some good soft snow on top. But please be aware although backcountry conditions will start to look inviting there is still the presence of a weak layer in places.

Please remember when traveling in the backcountry don't leave home without your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel as well as a well with a trained partner.

For Safe Field Trips:

Dig quick pits on your ascent.

A hasty pit is a hole dug in the snow that helps you identify weak and strong layers. If you suspect that there may be a weak layer buried deeply, you should always dig below that point. Otherwise a hole about one meter (3 ft) deep should be sufficient.

Once you dig the hole, you will be able to see major layers on the wall of the snow pit. You can detect hard strong layers and soft weak layers by poking the exposed layers in the wall of the pit with your finger, or by brushing the pit wall with your hand and looking for hard and less hard layers. You can also slide a credit card or ruler down through the layers and note the changes in resistance. An additional indicator that will help you identify layers that otherwise may be hard to detect is the shovel shear.
The more observations you make and stability tests you perform the more apt you are to accurately assess the stability.

Relying on one piece of data is like getting married on your first date. Sometimes it works, but generally it's not a good idea.

Where should I dig a pit?

It can be difficult to choose a place to dig a pit. Choose a representative spot and a safe spot that has undisturbed snow conditions similar to the slope you want to ride. In other words, you don't want to dig in an area that is wind scoured, has a big cornice, machine tracks, or bunches of vegetation. Dig on a slope small enough that even if it slides you will not get hurt or, if you are on a larger slope, take precautions such as a roped belay. Work your way down the slope on portions 30 degrees or less. You can also skirt tree lines or stay on sub-ridges that parallel the slope. The actual pit should ideally be on a slope 30 degrees or steeper. Ask yourself these questions:

?Is it safe?

?Is the snow undisturbed?

?Is it similar to the slope I am concerned about?

If the Terrain is Steep

When you're gathering data on slopes steeper than the low 30? range, consider using a belay. If your plans include exploring steep terrain, a small climbing rope should always be included in your gear.

Lower your partner onto a portion of the slope that has undisturbed snow conditions representative of the overall slope. Do not dig your pit beneath a cornice.