The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...BREEZY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET. TEMPERATURES
AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 34.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

SATURDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 39.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND
10 TO 15 MPH.

It was clear and cool late last week for several days. This comes following a week of rains to summit elevations.

The lower snowpack is fairly solid in place. It has seen quite a bit of rain and developed drainage down low. Up high it remains frozen and solid.

Last Saturday we received almost 4\" of new snow at upper mountain elevations.

Monday we were able to see that this 4\" had created slab formations in our urban starting zones. Some of these slabs failed naturally and several are still hanging.

As we went through Tuesday and into Wednesday the avalanche danger rose as we started to place additional new snow on the few weak shallow slabs that are in place.

Even without the presence of the slabs and weak layer, as this storm cames in accompanied by warming temps over the last few days danger levels rose quite a bit.

We have seen a 7 degree temperature rise over the last 60 hours and are expecting it to remain warm throughout the day today. This was a Moderate to Considerable warming trend.

Winds have averaged 10-25 for the last 60 hours and were much higher on Douglas Island. These are moderate to considerable windloading conditions.

We have seen 87mm of precipitation in the last 48 hours(roughly 3.4\"). The first 49mm of precipitation left 50cm of new snow at tram summit elevations. The last 38mm of moisture although near freezing temps(+1)translated into no new snow accumulation and settlement of nearly 10cm.

So although the snows came in at under 10% densities you can see now the overall densities averages are nearer to 18%. To get that average you can assume something like the bottom half is 10-15% density and the top half might be like 23-28% Density. The weak layer is present and the mousetrap has been set. You have a rather large brick sitting on a weaker layer.

This is a HIGH loading rate and as you can see from the last of the precip coming in the form of rain is placing quite heavy dense snow on top of looser lighter snows up high.

Forecast precip models have been reduced slightly this am.

With the continued precipitation on top of the weak layer and upside down slab in place AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

Please avoid spending time in Avalanche Zones such as the Flume Trail, Perseverance Trail.

Please avoid walking or jogging along Thane Road through avalanche paths.

Limit your danger by limiting your exposure.

Yesterday a portion of Thane Road slid and stopped short of the road. There is additional mass up there today and still areas of weakness. Driving the road yesterday I still saw groups of joggers and walkers heading through avalanche paths.

Please recognize you are at risk! This is not a smart place to be during periods of high danger.

Douglas Island saw quite a few avalanche yesterday, both natural and man made. Slides were ranging from 30 to 60cm and propagating widely. Running through trees and around terrain features. Cornices are weak and cornice falls have the ability to trigger larger slides. One cornice fall released a nearby slope over a meter deep.

A great deal or Woomphing and Cracking was seen in the snowpack during travel.

Forecast precipitation rates are predicted to fall. As we go through tonight in to tomorrow temps are also predicted to fall.

This weak layer may settle and bond but do not assume anything without doing the research to make good decisions on your own.

Time is our friend as this storm cools and precip rates subside we should see some good soft snow on top. But please be aware although backcountry conditions will start to look inviting there is still the presence of a weak layer in places.

Please remember when traveling in the backcountry don't leave home without your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel as well as a well with a trained partner.

Keep a record of any reported avalanches, identifying the elevation, aspect, and relative size of each event. Recent avalanche activity is one of the best indicators of an unstable snowpack. Look for clues of recent avalanche activity:

?Debris piles at the bottom of slopes

?Recent crown lines

?Newly damaged trees in avalanche paths

Previous avalanches ran for a reason and another load of snow may start another cycle or release new, even larger avalanches.