The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET AND RISING BY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
15 MPH.

It was clear and cool late last week for several days. This comes following a week of rains to summit elevations.

The lower snowpack is quite solid in place.

Saturday we received almost 4\" of new snow at upper mountain elevations.

Monday we were able to see that this 4\" had created slab formations in our urban starting zones. Some of these slabs failed naturally and several are still hanging.

As we went through Tuesday and into Wednesday the avalanche danger rose as we started to place this new snow on the few weak shallow slabs that are in place.

Even without the presence of the slabs and weak layer, as this storm comes in accompanied by warming temps over the next few days danger levels are expected to rise.

We have seen a 7 degree temperature rise over 36 hours and are expecting a few more degrees of warming throughout the day today. This is a Moderate to Considerable warming trend.

Winds have averaged 10-25 for the last 36 hours and were much higher on Douglas Island. These are moderate to considerable windloading conditions.

We have seen 70mm of precipitation in the last 36 hours(roughly 2.4). The first 49mm of precipitation left 50cm of new snow at tram summit elevations. The last 20mm of moisture although near freezing temps(+1)translated into no new snow accumulation.

This is a HIGH loading rate and as you can see from the last of the precip coming in the form of rain is placing quite heavy dense snow on top of looser lighter snows up high.

Forecast precip models have been reduced slightly this am.

With the continued precipitation and increase of another 2 degrees of temp on top of the weak layer and upside down slab in place AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

Please avoid spending time in Avalanche Zones such as the Flume Trail, Perseverance Trail.

Please avoid walking or jogging along Thane Road through avalanche paths.

Limit your danger by limiting your exposure.

Please remember when traveling in the backcountry dont leave home without your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel as well as a well with a trained partner.

Upside-Down Storm:

Lucky for us, most storms deposit new snow with denser snow on the bottom and lighter snow on top?just the way we like it. This is because most snow comes from cold fonts, which usually start out warm and windy but end up cold and calm. But sometimes snowstorms deposit denser, stiffer snow on top of softer, fluffier snow. We call this ?upside down? snow. We often call it ?slabby? or ?punchy? meaning that you punch through the surface slab into the softer snow below, making for difficult riding and trail breaking conditions. It also means that we need to carefully monitor avalanche conditions within the new snow because?by definition?a denser slab has been recently deposited on top of a weaker layer, which should make anyone?s avalanche antennae stand at attention. Most instabilities within upside-down snow stabilize within a day or two.

The kind of weather conditions that often produce upside-down snow include warm fronts, storms in which the wind blows harder at the end of the storm than the beginning, or storms that end with an unstable airmass, which can precipitate a lot of graupel within instability showers.

Here is SEAK as you know dry often means cold... and as we start to see moisture temps often increase... as they continue to increase throughout the cycle we quite often see this upside down pack here in our enviroment.

Be aware that once it is created if loading rates remain high it is only a matter of time before weak layer failure.

Sometimes when were lucky the precipitation rates slow and the lower weak layers have the time needed to settle and bond. Once settlement has occured often these weak layers will then have the strength to support additional load. But be aware once they have formed the mouse trap has been set.