Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2011-02-05
Danger:1
Trend:3
Probability:2
Size:2
Problem:0
Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 33. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG LATE. LOWS 21 TO 27.
NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 20 TO 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

Precipitation rates have been low for the last few days.

Temperatures have fallen 8 degrees in the last 3 days and are predicted to remain below freezing today.

We have received about 4\" of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit level. Winds have been fairly light during most of it and scattered in direction.

Avalanche Danger is LOW today in the urban paths.

Small pocket of weakness may exist in the backcountry at higher elevations that could be triggererd yet in general dangers remain low.

Tip:

Trigger:

Most avalanches are ?naturally? triggered, meaning that weather (wind, snow, rain or sun) stress the snowpack to its breaking point. Like a tree falling in the woods, for the most part, we only care about the ones that affect people. Luckily, in 92 percent of avalanche accidents, the avalanche is triggered by the victim or someone in the victim?s party. In other words, most avalanche accidents happen by choice, not chance. These are ?human triggered? avalanches. In other words, weather adds stress to the snowpack until it nearly equals the strength of the snowpack. Then, the added weight of a person provides the final thump to initiate a fracture within the buried weak layer. (No, noise does NOT trigger avalanches. It?s a clich? plot device in the movies, but noise is simply not enough force to trigger an avalanche.)

We can also think of snow stability in terms of the size of trigger required to trigger an avalanche. Notice that when natural avalanches are occurring, the stability meter is pegged out at the top of the scale. That?s why the best sign of avalanche danger is another avalanche on a similar slope.