Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2011-02-02
Danger:4
Trend:3
Probability:4
Size:3
Problem:0
Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 43. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25
MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...RAIN. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

Temperatures have risen slightly in the last 24 hours.

We received 22mm of moisture(remember 25.4 is one inch) in the last 24 hours.

We are predicted to receive more than another inch of precipitation in the next 24 hours.

Most of the surface weakness is limited to very small slides and after yesterday we should see limited activity with these smaller slides.

Today is the warmest days we have seen since Dec 7th.

As we continue to see these warm temps and moderate rains we are eating at the bonds solidifying the snow in place.

As we continue this long warm wet spell this moisture adds weight and stress to the snowpack and continues to eat at the bonds deeper and deeper in the snowpack the longer the conditions exist.

Last week we cleaned a lot of the weak layers in place off the mountains especially at lower elevations.

As this condition persists it becomes more difficult to time avalanches and determine what layer they might run on.

Be aware that although we do not have much snow in the urban zones down low, and although we cleaned a lot of weak layers out of the pack, the danger of avalanche is HIGH today.

Natural avalanches are likely and human triggered avalanches are more than likely.

Tip:

The Juneau Snowmobile Club will be practicing Avalanche Companion Rescue and Rapid Snowpack Assesment techniques this weekend at the Dan Moeller Cabin on Saturday from 10-1.

Feel free to swing by and join in! This is a free training event.