The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 36. WEST WIND TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 22. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST TO 10 MPH LATE.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 23. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

Temperatures have fallen by 4 degrees in the last 30 hours and are expected to continue falling for the next 24 hours.

We have seen less than 1\" of precipitation in the last 48 hours. Precipitation rates have slowed from more than double that number several days ago.

AVALANCHE DANGER IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME>

Natural Avalanches are unlikely yet human triggered avalanches are still possible.

PLEASE BE AWARE THIS IS NOT A BACKCOUNTRY FORECAST.

This forecast if for the urban areas of the city of Juneau.

10 days ago the Mt Roberts Tram weather station reported 148cm of snowpack on the ground. Currently the gauge is showing 181cm. We received a total of 33cm of new snow accumulation during this time.

At the summit of Eaglecrest only a few hundred feet higher those 10 day snowfall accumulation totals are almost double with the Eaglecrest summit showing more than 66cm of new during that same time.

The densities at Eaglecrest summit were quite high and we even saw a little rain at that elevation.

We received a total of 156mm of moisture in the last 10 days which is quite a bit. Had all this precipitation come to us in the form of 10% average density snows we could have received as much as 156cm of new snow. Even with rapid settlement this would probably have added up to more than 130cm of snow.

So it is safe to assume that although the tram weather station recorded 33cm of new snow over the last 10 days, there may be over 4 times that much new snow at higher elevations in the backcountry.

Winds have been consistantly blowing over the last 10 days as well creating a lot of windloading in areas with new snow.

Slab avalanche activity has been sighted throughout the region over the last 10 days.

Many slopes reach a state of instability yet never fail do to the lack of a trigger.

We have no triggers to speak of in the urban avalanche zones.

Please recognize in the backcounrty in certain areas the mousetrap has been set. Although there are fewer trigger points today than there were several days ago if you venture into the wrong spot it is still quite possible to step on the trap.

Snow conditions are quite variable right now on different aspects and at different elevations.

If you choose to go into the backcountry please recognize you should have the ability to look at the snow by doing avalanche assesment techniques and make your own decisions. For backcounrty travelers who are making their own decisions a LEVEL I AVALANCHE COURSE is highly recommended.

Now is a great time to remind people of the importance of avalanche education.

Please also remember:

AVALANCHE TRANSCEIVER, PROBE, SHOVEL, and PARTNER.

DONT LEAVE HOME WITHOUT THEM!

Having a slab on a weak layer that?s on top of a good sliding surface constitutes an unstable snowpack, the kind most prone to avalanching. An unstable snowpack contains both weak and strong snow layers. A weak layer consists of poorly bonded or unconsolidated snow, while a strong snow layer has well consolidated snow, such as a slab.

A stable snowpack is generally more homogeneous and lacks significant density differences throughout the pack. It can contain:

?Snow that?s all strong

?Snow that?s all weak

?A layer of weak snow on top of a layer of strong snow

Over time, the bonds between weak layers and slabs may strengthen, stabilizing the pack. A stable snowpack is not prone to avalanching.