The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET INCREASING TO 1300 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 32.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

We received .7\" of rain in the last 24 hours. This was a bit more than the forecast amount.

Moisture models for the next 48 hours have been downgraded. Loading rates will still be moderate. If we see a slight surge in the storm this could lead to substantially more precipitation mostly in the form of rain.

The current forecast calls for 800' freezing levels this morning climbing to 1300' in the afternoon. Yet it is currently +1C at the 1800' Mt Roberts Tram Summit Elevation.

24 hour temperatures since the 21st have been the warmest temps we have seen since December 7th. Combined with this rain event the snowpack is seeing more stress now than it has in quite some time.

Saturday morning we went through a rather wide spread natural avalanche release cycle. This can be good in removing weak layers and yet shows us that the weak layers are widespread throughout the region. Although we had many slides, many slopes have still not slid and have the same possible weakness present.

Most of Saturdays avalanches appeared to be running on the innerface between two snow layers caused by warming temps. Temperatures dropped Friday night and we placed dry snow on top of the rain wetted surface in place. The loading rates were VERY high. As we continued to load the dry snow on a greasy weak layer, temperatures were warming. So we placed a block of snow on top of a weak layer of champagne glasses that were resting on a greasy slurpee. As this rapid loading continued it was only a matter of time before we started to see slope failure.

Avalanches were seen in the White Path, The Berhands Path, Thane Road, and Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail. Natural releases were also sighted near Eaglecrest on Mt Troy, Showboat Ridge, Mt Ben Steward. Natural activity was widespread.

We were not able to view starting zones in the urban avalanche zones therefore it is difficult to say if we have cleaned out all the area of weakness or only part of the slope avalanched.

Also there are weak layers deeper in the snowpack that are still questionable. So even if we cleaned out the upper weak layers we could still see avalanche activity in the form of secondary slides from the lower layers in place.

Courtesy aerial photos sent yesterday from Mike Janes of AEL&P showed the upper starting zones of the Berhands path. It appears that some of the avalanche debris may have come from the deeper weak layer failing. This is the first deep weak layer failure we have seen in the region in quite some time. This shows us that this weakness too is now close to the trigger point where it exists.

The Danger Level Today is CONSIDERABLE.

Natural avalanches are still possible.

Human Triggered avalanches are still likely.

Many areas are quite stable and with good terrain selection you could travel in the backcountry. Yet the mousetrap has been set. There is a weak layer with low density snows down to about 35-40 cm deep under high density snow so firm you can only barely stick a pencil into it. This shows us that brick on top of those champaign glasses. They can hold weight, but the question is how much.

With some new snow at summit elevations new wind slabs are also possible on windloaded pitches.

Be aware of areas in the snow with additional stress such as steep open unanchored slopes as well as on convex rollovers.

Backcounrty travel is recommended only for groups with good snowpack stability evaluation skills, training, and rescue equipment.

Remember Transceiver, Probe, Shovel, and partner(and sometimes 2) Don't leave home without them!

Some people have made comment that I switch back and forth between Metric and Standard Measurements.

The American Avalanche Association guidelines recommend use of the metric system because it is by far the easiest system to use for snow measurement, and it allows us to communicate with workers from other countries.

For those who are not comfortable with the metric system, here are some tips for increasing your fluency:

1. Buy and use the metric topo maps at the store, get a metric tape measure, read the Celsius side of your thermometer every morning, and you will soon find the units just as familiar and far more intuitive than the old ones.

2. Remember that the metric system is based on the properties of water. Snow is water, so this works well for us.

3. The system is based on the number ten, so calculations are easy.

4. Snow density is measured in kilograms per cubic meter (kg/m3). A cubic centimeter of water weighs one gram. A liter of water is 1,000 cubic centimeters and weighs a kilogram. A cubic meter of water is 1,000 liters and weighs 1000 kilograms, which is roughly a ton. Its density is thus 1,000 kg/m3.

In snow travelers? terms, blower powder is in the 30-50 kg/m3 range, good floaty powder is around 100-120 kg/m3, settled old snow around 300 kg/m3, water-saturated snow 500 kg/m3, and glacier ice 800 kg/m3.

5. For distance and elevation, we use meters, centimeters, and millimeters. Multiply meters by 3.281 for feet; centimeters by 2.54 for inches.

Practically speaking, a meter is a big yard.

A millimeter is a skinny sixteenth.

A centimeter is about 3/8 inch.

A 2x4 (inches) is a 5x10 (cm).

A foot is about 30 cm. Measure and calibrate yourself to be sure, but knee-deep powder is about 50 cm on most adult males, and our belly buttons are about a meter off the ground.

6. For temperature, degrees Celsius are 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit; about 2 degrees F, and 0 degrees C is the freezing point of pure water, or 32 degrees F.

The handiest points to have in your memory are that 0?F is -18? C, -10C is +14?F, plus 10?C is +50?F, and minus 40? is the same in both systems.

7. We measure wind speed in meters per second. Double that figure to get knots.

Congratulations, you are now a citizen of the world in the 21st century!