The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TUESDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
15 Temperatures have been fairly consistant over the last 2 days. Precipitation rates have slowed considerably.

At Mt Roberts Tram Summit where yesterday morning we had recorded 2\" of moisture in the previous 36 hours, today we are showing less than 1\" for the last 48 hours.

This slower precip rate is giving the snowpack time to settle and bond.

Saturday morning we went through a rather wide spread natural avalanche release cycle. This can be good in removing weak layers and yet shows us that the weak layers are widespread throughout the region. Although we had many slides, many slopes have still not slid and have the same possible weakness present.

Most of Saturdays avalanches appeared to be running on the innerface between two storm cycles. Temperatures dropped Friday night and we placed dry snow on top of the rain wetted surface in place. The loading rates were VERY high. As we continued to load the dry snow on a greasy weak layer, temperatures were warming. So we placed a block of snow on top of a weak layer of champagne glasses that were resting on a greasy slurpee. As this rapid loading continued it was only a matter of time before we started to see slope failure.

Avalanches were seen in the White Path, The Berhands Path, Thane Road, and Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail. Natural releases were also sighted at Eaglecrest, Mt Troy, Showboat Ridge, Mt Ben Steward. Natural activity was widespread.

We were not able to view starting zones in the urban avalanche zones therefore it is difficult to say if we have cleaned out all the area of weakness or only part of the slope avalanched.

Also there are weak layers deeper in the snowpack that are still questionable. So even if we cleaned out the upper weak layers we could still see avalanche activity in the form of secondary slides from the lower layers in place.

The Danger Level Today is CONSIDERABLE.

Natural avalanches are still possible. Yet with the slower precip rate the danger has gone down slightly from yesterday.

Human Triggered avalanches are still likely. Many areas are quite stable and with good terrain selection you could travel in the backcountry. Yet the mousetrap has been set. There is a weak layer with low density snows down to about 35-40 cm deep under high density snow so firm you can only barely stick a pencil into it. This shows us that brick on top of those champaign glasses. They can hold weight, but the question is how much.

Be aware of areas in the snow with additional stress such as steep open unanchored slopes as well as on convex rollovers.

Backcounrty travel is recommended only for groups of 3 or more with good snowpack stability evaluation skills.

Remember Transceiver, Probe, Shovel, and partner(and sometimes 2) Don't leave home without them!

Tomorrow into Wednesday we will go back into a period with higher precip rates. Through this 2 day period forecast models show as much as 2.16\" of precipitation. Danger levels will rise again. The danger level will have a lot to do with where the freezing level ends up during this event and how much windloading we see if the upper mountains see it in the form of snow. But in general anytime we add more than 1\" of precipitation to the snowpack in 24 hours this adds enough stress to create concern and high danger levels. Knowing we could have 2 of those days back to back raises even greater concern especially knowing we just followed up another cycle that created great loading and stress.

Make your own decisions.

Just because a slope has been skied does not mean it is safe. Don't make assumptions; gather your own objective data and base your decisions on that data.

An avalanche can be triggered anywhere on a slope.
If you have been gathering good data and evaluating the snow in a variety of locations throughout your tour, you will have a better assessment of the overall snowpack stability.

Always follow safe travel and descent protocols:

?Only expose one person at a time.
?Wear releaseable bindings.
?Keep your pole straps off your wrist.
?Move from island of safety to island of safety.
?Never travel above another person.
?Always move a safe distance away from the base of a slope that you just skied.
?Watch your partners and signal when you are clear of the slope.

Be prepared for the worst!

An avalanche victim's ONLY chance of survival is rescue by his or her party.

Constantly discuss all observations and test results with your partners.

Don't be afraid to speak up. Your input is valuable.

Don't be so focused on your goal that you ignore obvious clues. Re-evaluate constantly. Adapt to changing conditions.

If you have any degree of uncertainty, be conservative.
You can still have an awesome winter backcountry experience choosing a lower angle slope or different route.