Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2011-01-08
Danger:2
Trend:2
Probability:3
Size:2
Problem:0
Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 30. VARIABLE MOSTLY NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. STRONGEST WIND DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR...BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 15. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH.

SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 25. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 8 TO 18. NORTHEAST WIND
10 MPH.

We have received no new snow in the last 24 hours. Temperatures are cooling.
We are receiving moderate windloading.

Danger Levels are MODERATE at this time.

Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible.

Since January 1st at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station(1800ft) we have received 84mm of Precipitation. During that time we have only received 10cm of snow overall after settlement and consolidation. During this same time the Eaglecrest Summit has received over 40cm of new snow after settlement and consolidation. Only slightly lower on the hill the UAS snow study plot is only snowing 10cm of snow during that same period. This shows that conditions will vary greatly at slightly different elevations right now and we may have seen a little bit of windloading near summit elevations as well.

Most of this precipitation came in the form of rain. In the last few days we have received a bit of snow on top of that rain saturated snowpack.

Temperatures have fallen fairly consistantly over 5 degrees in the last 4 days. This has placed a strong snowpack on top of the rain saturated snow in place.

With Cooler temperatures in place the lower snowpack is starting to freeze back to a fairly solid state. This new snow is acting as an insulator and the lower rain saturated snowpack takes a little longer to freeze with new snow on top of it acting as a blanket.

There is still some free moisture lower in the snowpack. As this cool weather continues the lower snowpack will continue to gain strength.

Be cautious of new snow windloading near the summits. Small pockets of instability may exist as well as new slabs may build during the current moderate windloading.

Be cautious of steep open faces. During our last super heavy dense snowfall it tends to stick to and load up on the steeper pitches that often do not hold snow. These areas with lack of anchors may trigger more easily in an effort to releive the stress of the new snow.

Small point release avalanches may be sighted as the sun warms the snow on the trees and rocks. As this snow falls off branches and rocky areas it may continue downhill starting surface point release loose snow avalanches. These slides are not expected to be very large. Yet in steep long open pitches a fair amount of mass may be accumulated.

Be safe. Travel with Partners, Transceivers, Probes and Shovels. Choose safe lines. Ski One At A Time to Minimize Exposure.

AND ENJOY A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IN JUNEAU!

Tip:

AVALANCHE COMPANION RESCUE - Skills Workshop Series
EVERY SATURDAY IN JANUARY

Sponsored by
Eaglecrest Ski Area
Juneau Mountain Rescue
Southeast Alaska Avalanche Center

Saturdays in January from 1-3:30 PM

Meet at the Eaglecrest Avalanche Beacon Training Park

Saturday January 8th - Avalanche Transceivers, Single Search

Saturday January 15th- Multiple Avalanche Transceiver Searching

Saturday January 22nd- Strategic Shoveling

Saturday January 29th - Companion Rescue Overview- Live Recovery Exercise