The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS
29 TO 33. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 12 TO 22. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH LATE.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS 23 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 21 TO 27.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

We received several new inches of snow overnight. This is laying on top of several inches of snow from the last 2 days.

During the last 24 hours temps have fallen slightly. This is a good sign for stability. Mid day today should show the warmest temps for the week and as this evenings temps start to drop back down we should see added stability. But during the warmest part of today there is still concern.

In the urban avalanche starting zones the wind effect has been limited. There is more windloading in the backcountry starting zones on Douglas Island than on the Mt Juneau Paths.

This windloading in places has placed additional weight load on slopes that have now seen much new snow in quite some time.

Before the new snow storms there were still several weak layers present in the snowpack. From the earth surface all the way up to the snowpacks surface. The snowpack is still quite shallow in places. Also during our period of clear cold weather we noticed some faceting in weak layers throughout the snowpack.

As new load is added via new snow and windload be cautious as it is unclear how the weak layers in place will support new snow load at this time.

Avalanche Danger is low at this time in the Urban Avalanche Zones.

Be cautious in the backcountry as you enter windloaded areas. Be cautious in steeper terrain where snow will want to sluff off to releive itself.

Be looking for the presence of wind affect and soft slabs forming in places near ridgeline.

Great day to remember the basics.
Transceiver, Probe, Shovel, Partner. Dont leave home without them!

Since most avalanches are associated with recent or newly fallen precipitation, you should collect the following information for any recent and/or ongoing precipitation events:

?Amount of new snowfall
?Rate of accumulation
?Snow water equivalent
?New snow density

New snow amount: New snowfall is usually recorded to the nearest inch (cm) at 24-hour intervals or sometimes more often during storms. Measurements are taken manually from a storm board (snow board) at the site or automatically, using a remote sensing device, such as an acoustic snow height sensing instrument.

Snow accumulation rate: We measure the water content or SWE of new snow to help us determine its density and learn about the weight of new snow being added to the pack. Record SWE to the nearest one-hundredth of an inch (or tenth of a millimeter). Measure it using a melting precipitation gauge or by bringing a snow sample from a standard precipitation gauge indoors, melting it, and measuring the height of the water. It can also be measured by weighing a core sample of new snow using a calibrated scale designed for weighing snow collected with a snow tube

New snow density: Snow density is another way of expressing how much weight is being added to the snowpack. For a given snow depth, high-density snow adds more weight (water) than low-density snow. Snow density is usually expressed as a dimensionless ratio of snow water content to snow depth (such as 1:10) or as a percentage of snow water content to snow depth (such as 10%).

To calculate density, divide the amount of water contained in the snow by the depth of the new snow. The higher the value, the more water is in the snow.

Here are a few exercises.

What?s the density of 20 inches (50 cm) of snow that contains 2 inches (5 cm) of water? (Choose the best answer.)

a) 1:10 or 10% .
b) 2:10 or 5% .
c) 20:2 or 1000% .
d) 20:1 or 2000% .
The correct answer is A.
If you divide the snow water content (2 in or 5 cm) by the snow depth (20 in or 50 cm), you get 1:10 or 10%.
.
Which snowpack weighs more? (Choose the best answer.)

a) 20 inches (50 cm) of snow with 2 inches (5 cm) of water .
b) 20 inches (50 cm) of snow with 1 inch (2.5 cm) of water .
The correct answer is A.
The first pack has a density of 10% (2 inches / 20 = 1:10 or 10%), whereas the second has a density of 5% (1 / 20 = 1:20 or 5%). The snow depths are the same but the denser snow contains twice as much weight as the less dense snow.

Storm trend: During the course of a storm, temperature fluctuations will produce snowfalls with varying new snow densities.

?Storms that begin with warmer temperatures and higher-density snowfall and end with colder temperatures and lower-density snowfall produce a more stable layer. These are known as right-side-up storms because lighter snow overlays heavier snow.
?Storms that begin with colder temperatures and lower-density snow followed by warmer temperatures and higher-density snow produce a more unstable layer. These are referred to as upside-down storms since heavier snow overlays lighter snow.
When tracking incoming storms, be sure to consider the nature of the underlying or old snow surface. If new snow falls on surface hoar or near-surface facets, an unstable situation may develop regardless of the new snow?s density.

Rainfall: Rainfall adds weight to a pack. Especially in maritime climates, you should closely monitor the snow/rain level during storms since rain on snow almost always causes avalanches.

What is the current storm trend?

You can see overall snow depth, new snow amounts, precip amounts or snow water equivilant all online through my weather linke on the left side of my menu.

The University of Alaska Fish Creek Knob site shows Douglas Island at about 1800' and we have a new weather station on top of the Mt Roberts Tram showing Channel Weather at about the same elevation of 1800'