The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 18 TO 24. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.
WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW.

TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 11 TO 21. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS 22 TO 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 16 TO 22. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

With the warm weather from 2 weeks ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit.

There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading.

Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days.

Thursday natural avalanche releases were sighted on multiple aspects due to wind loading. Be aware there are pockets of instability.

With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds.

Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast.

Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack and natural avalanches have been sighted recently.

Remember- Long periods of cold temperatures build weaker snow, which isn?t a problem until the next significant snowfall.

Caution- When temperatures stay well below freezing for long periods of time and high and low temperatures never rise above 15?F (-10?C) day and night, weak layers may develop on the surface or near the ground in a shallow snowpack; this can create a layer that fails with the next load of new snow.

Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Cloud cover affects both the amount of radiational cooling that can occur at night and the amount of direct solar heating that can occur during the day.

Clear, cold nights are accompanied by rapid radiative cooling and can create weak layers in the snowpack, especially when very cold temperatures persist for several nights. Even thin layers of high cloudiness at night will inhibit radiative cooling.

Daytime direct solar radiation warms the snow surface and can cause melting or sublimation, especially as the sun gets higher in the sky in late winter and spring. During this time, higher temperatures combined with increased solar radiation can lead to rapid snowmelt, especially near rock outcroppings and cliff bands and on south-facing slopes (in the Northern Hemisphere). All but a thick overcast will allow some solar radiation to reach the surface and potentially cause melting.

Late in spring, once the free water has percolated all the way down through the snowpack, climax avalanches can occur, removing what remains of the season?s snowpack. (A climax avalanche involves all or most of a snowpack, exposing the ground.)

The duration of cloud cover determines how much it reduces nighttime radiative cooling and daytime direct solar radiation.

When forecasting future weather conditions, you analyze the same weather variables (precipitation, wind, air temperature, and cloud cover) but use weather forecast models to predict how they may change in the future. Choose a model that works well in your area, preferably a mesoscale or high-resolution regional model.

Most avalanche weather forecasts focus on the next 24 hours. However, longer-range forecasts of up to 48 hours or more are needed when, for example, planning long-range travel or future avalanche hazard reduction work.