Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2010-04-15
Danger:3
Trend:3
Probability:5
Size:2
Problem:0
Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 52. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 35 TO 41. NORTHWEST WIND 15 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 51. LIGHT WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. LIGHT WINDS.

Yesterday afternoons temperatures were the warmest this month at upper mountain elevations.

Last night temperatures did not fall below freezing.

Today will see a great deal of direct sunlight and warm temperatures.

Look to see snow cleaning off rocks in steep areas.

Look to see cornices falling.

In steeper open areas this has the potential to entrain quite a bit of snow mass.

Most activity will be class 1 small slides, peeling the layers off of this seasons snow onion... one layer at a time... point release, surface avalanches. With mostly the snow that has melted and turned to slush on the surface.

As temperatures rise and the nights do not cool nearly as much, the melting can go deeper and deeper into the snowpack. So what was a big block of ice starts to become a slurpee.

If the snowpack can drain the runoff fast enough, the slurpee is out of liquid and becomes stiff... if the snowpack melts too rapidly and the moisture cannot drain it is like a very liquid slurpee... and as you know.. if you turn it on its side.. it will want to slide...

The longer these really warm temps exist and nights stay warm the greater the concern becomes in those steep areas.

Tip:

Most of the urban avalanche paths have run out of potential energy for large slides. Enough snow has melted off to prevent large activity.

The Berhands path is still holding quite a bit of snow up high.

Chop Gulley above the Flume trail is still holding quite a bit of snow up high in pockets.

Thane road still has quite a bit of snow in 3 zones, but the concern is deminishing rapidly with these warm long days!!!

ENJOY ITS GOING TO BE A GREAT DAY!!!