The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 42. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET. LOWS AROUND 35. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 80 PERCENT.

THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 41. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

We have seen above freezing temperatures at the Mt Roberts Tram elevation for most of the last 4 days yet temperatures are below freezing at this time.

With above freezing temperatures and rain we are tearing down the bonds in the snowpack that are holding it firmly in place like a big block of ice.

The longer this warm weather persists the deeper in the snowpack the temperature and rain saturation penetrate and weaken it.

Saturday night during the heavy rains a small avalanche came down on Thane road showing us the presence of a deeper weak layer in areas.

This weak layers still exixts on areas of Mt Roberts and Mt Juneau as well.

It could be more easily triggered during periods of heavy rain yet danger remains present as long as Tram temperatures stay above freezing.

With not much rain or warming in the forecast today avalanche danger is moderate.

Freezing temperatures are the glue that bond the snow together. When above freezing temperatures exist the glue is weakened. The longer the above freezing temperatures stay in place the worse the melting becomes.