Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-03-31 06:25:01
Primary Trend:3
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:3
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

With nearly 10\" of snow at Eaglecrest and more at upper elevations... and recognizing this came in with winds from 30-50mph from the SSE... We have had windslabs build out in the region at upper elevations overnight.

Be aware that yesterdays loading rates were considerable and todays are forecast to be as high or higher. With continued warming today it will add increased concern.

Recognize too in areas with the deeper instability these slabs could be getting quite large now. And the shallower wind slab may be more than enough to trigger the deeper weak layer.

Secondary Trend:2
Secondary Probability:5
Secondary Likelihood:3
Secondary Size:3
Secondary Description:

This deeper persistent weak layer is now buried quite deep with the addition of the new snows at upper elevations.

This weak layer could easily be 3-5' deep in places.

This layer has continued to show weakness around the region with natural avalanches occuring on it day and day again...

The added precip at high loading rates we are experiencing is keeping the danger levels high and this deeper weakness near a state of instability constantly.

It doesn't take much to trigger this deeper weak layer where it can be found. Small wet loose slides, wind, and increased load alone have caused naturals on it again and again over the last two weeks.

Be careful out there folks.


The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Rain. Snow level 1300 feet early in the morning. Highs around 44. Southeast wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight- Rain. Lows around 40. South wind 10 mph.

Saturday- Rain. Highs around 46. Southeast wind 10 mph.

Our mountain zone temperatures remain right near freezing. Eaglecrest was 31f this a.m. while the tram is 33f.

We received a fair amount of precip yesterday. with 17mm at the tram and 28mm at Eaglecrest (1.1\") Bue to near freezing temps this translated into new snow in our upper mountain regions. The tram picked up around 12cm of new snow and Eaglecrest 23cm. (over 9\") These are considerable to high loading rates and will add a fair amount of stress to the snowpack.

Winds were high yesterday as well. Winds from the SSE blew 30-40mph gusting to 50. This would have created considerable windloading in starting zones near summit and ridgeline. Sometimes at these near freezing temps the snow will bond well and paste right into the snowpack... yet with near 10\" of new and 30-50mph winds are not to be ignored in regards to windloading and slab building.

The forecast for today calls for increased warming throughout the day with an additional 1-1.25\" of precipitation in the next 24 hours.

This is two red flag days back to back in terms of weather and loading rates. With the previous deeper instability in the region this adds great concern.

Avalanche danger is HIGH today.

Both Natural and Human triggered avalanches likely.

Please avoid avalanche terrain in areas like the Flume Trail today. Please also do not hike in the gated areas above the Berhands neighborhood. We have a fair amount of snow up high now and these near freezing temps and high loading rates have the ability to trigger the deeper instabilities.

Use caution in avalanche terrain and limit your exposure to extreme terrain.

We may also see wet loose avalanches at lower to mid elevations in the snow... as warming occurs today.

Forecaster:Tom Mattice