Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-02-16 08:07:04
Danger:1
Primary Trend:1
Primary Probability:9
Primary Likelihood:2
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

The wild card would be glide avalanches. If you see areas with glide be sure to avoid their track. Glide avalanches can occur anytime and often do so during a cooling phase after a long wet storm with plenty of groundwater.

Secondary Trend:1
Secondary Probability:6
Secondary Likelihood:1
Secondary Size:1
Secondary Description:

With diurnal warming and direct sunlight today we may see enough warming to form wet loose avalanches. But with cooler temperatures in place odds are not good.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy freezing fog early in the morning. Highs around 38. Northwest wind 10 mph.

Tonight- Increasing clouds. Isolated snow showers late. Lows 23 to 29. Light winds becoming east 10 mph late.

Friday- Cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Scattered rain showers in the afternoon. Highs around 38. Southeast wind 10 mph

After a week of big snow big rain and big avalanches things have calmed down a bit. Our snowpack was quite warm and moisture saturated up until 48 hours ago. Precipitation rates have slowed since that time allowing the snowpack time to settle and drain. The temperatures have also cooled off back below the point of freezing which will start to lock up this big slurpee we had.

Currently temperatures are 25f at the Eaglecrest base. 24f at mid mountain and 23f on top. Mt Roberts is showing 26f this morning.

With only a trace of snow in the forecast and another few degrees of cooling overnight avalanche danger is LOW today. Both natural and human triggered avalanches are not likely.

The wild card would be glide avalanches. If you see areas with glide be sure to avoid their track. Glide avalanches can occur anytime and often do so during a cooling phase after a long wet storm with plenty of groundwater.

You may also see small wet loose point release avalanches later today in the heat of the day on the sunny slopes but with cooler temperatures in place this is not likely nor would they be very large.

Tip:

Here is a link to a great article on \"The Mysteries of Glide Avalanches\"

http://sciencenordic.com/mysteries-glide-avalanches

Forecaster:Tom Mattice