Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-02-11 07:10:55
Danger:4
Primary Trend:3
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:4
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

The storm slabs are not too bad this morning with only a few inches of new snow... but as we warm up today during this heavy snowfall this slab will change quickly and build fast throughout the day.

Depending on precipitation volumes and warming we may see this lead to a natural avalanche cycle tonight into tomorrow... but recognize regardless of natural activity the storm snow will be nearing a state of instability during this upside down snow it is simply awaiting a trigger (you).

Secondary Trend:3
Secondary Probability:2
Secondary Likelihood:3
Secondary Size:2
Secondary Description:

The storm slabs are not too bad this morning with only a few inches of new snow... but as we warm up today during this heavy snowfall this slab will change quickly and build fast throughout the day.

Depending on precipitation volumes and warming we may see this lead to a natural avalanche cycle tonight into tomorrow... but recognize regardless of natural activity the storm snow will be nearing a state of instability during this upside down snow it is simply awaiting a trigger (you).

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Windy. Widespread snow showers and rain showers early in the morning, then rain...heavy at times. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches...except 3 to 8 inches on douglas island above 1200 feet. snow level 1000 feet. Highs around 41. South wind 10 to 20 mph increasing to 35 mph with gusts to around 50 mph.

Tonight- Windy, rain...heavy at times in the evening, then widespread rain showers late. Lows around 36. Southeast wind 35 mph with gusts to around 45 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph late.

Sunday- Widespread rain showers. Snow level 800 feet. Highs around 40. Southeast wind 10 to 20 mph.

Temperatures warmed up a fair amount around the region yesterday before the new snow set in. This should help with the new snow bonding to the old snow surface over time. Yet recognize this takes time with an old hard bed surface.

We received about 3-4\" of new snow around the region at Eaglecrest and Roberts. This came in at about 10% densities. Still fairly low. This reading could be off a little as well as we have high winds. It could be that in general we had less snow and a little wind transport to our recording locations.

Winds are strong this morning with the tram blowing 30 gusting 35 out of the NE. As where Eaglecrest is showing 30mph winds gusting 41 out of the SE.

Last nights new snow in combination with 30-40mph winds on old hard bed surfaces is sure to have built weak windslabs in windloaded locations.

Todays forecast calls for increase temperatures throughout the day to above the point of freezing. The forecast calls for as much as 1.6\" precipitation in the next 24 hours... and the forecast calls for continued winds from 20-50mph gusts. This is three big bright red flags in our forecast.

The forecast volumes have been decreased in the last 24 hours. Had we received more snow last night and the forecast remained high danger levels would be even higher... but as it is my guess is avalanche danger is HIGH. Natural avalanches are likely as we see these large precip volumes and wind and human triggered avalanches are more than likely especially in windloaded areas.

Conditions are probably a little more Considerable this morning but raising fast through the heat of the day with the large precip volumes still on the way.

Be safe out there... remember the basics. Beacon, Probe, Shovel, Good partner... Don't leave home without them... and PRACTICE together with your partner. Do you have his back? Does he have yours? Prove it with a 90 second parking lot transceiver practice session today...

Tip:

Be safe out there... remember the basics. Beacon, Probe, Shovel, Good partner... Don't leave home without them... and PRACTICE together with your partner. Do you have his back? Does he have yours? Prove it with a 90 second parking lot transceiver practice session today...

Forecaster:Tom Mattice