Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-02-02 07:12:39
Danger:2
Primary Trend:3
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:2
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

The avalanche conditions are stable for the most part.

Glide avalanches always remain a concern if you have glide cracks in your region.

Best to always aviod slopes with glide cracks visible.

Secondary Trend:2
Secondary Probability:9
Secondary Likelihood:1
Secondary Size:2
Secondary Description:

The avalanche conditions are stable for the most part.

Glide avalanches always remain a concern if you have glide cracks in your region.

Best to always aviod slopes with glide cracks visible.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Partly cloudy early in the morning then becoming sunny, locally very windy. Highs 23 to 40. North wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon. Near downtown juneau and douglas, northeast wind 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

Tonight- Clear, locally very windy. Lows 17 to 34. North wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Near downtown juneau and douglas, northeast wind 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

Friday- Sunny. Locally very windy. Highs around 32. North wind 15 to 25 mph. Near downtown juneau and douglas, northeast wind 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 60 mph.

The last 3 days have been quite calm around the region with no new snow, light winds, and continued cold temperatures.

This morning Eaglcrest is showing a small temperature inversion with 23f at the base. 26f at mid mountain and 26f on top. Mt Roberts is slightly warmer at 27f.

Winds are moderate this morning with Eaglecrest showing 19 gusting 21 and the tram is at 12 gusting 15 both out of the North. These winds are forecast to increase and this will create the primary concern over the next few days.

With no new snow in the forecast cold temps and moderate winds the avalanche danger is currently Moderate . Hazard will be increasing with the windload over the next 24-72 hours yet with not much snow available for transport this windloading should be at a minimum compared to what we could see.

Slides sizes would be small for the urban area but large enough to be a concern if you were in the backcountry.

With the current windloading there is a possibility of both small natural and manmade avalanches.

Tip:

Here is a link to an interesting article on:

The role of collapse in avalanche release from the International Snow Science Workshop

http://people.eri.ucsb.edu/~nbair/storage/bair_et_al_collapse_issw_2016_v4.pdf

Forecaster:Tom Mattice