Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-01-18 07:16:10
Danger:2
Primary Trend:1
Primary Probability:6
Primary Likelihood:2
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

Have you seen any glide cracks opening up around the region? often times our extended warm rainy periods will begin this cycle for the year... if you see any glide cracks point them out to others and track those areas until those cracks fail... recognize that they are hard to predict yet very dangerous.

Secondary Trend:2
Secondary Probability:9
Secondary Likelihood:1
Secondary Size:2
Secondary Description:

Have you seen any glide cracks opening up around the region? often times our extended warm rainy periods will begin this cycle for the year... if you see any glide cracks point them out to others and track those areas until those cracks fail... recognize that they are hard to predict yet very dangerous.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Patchy fog and freezing fog early in the morning. Snow likely in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation 1 inch or less. Highs around 37. Northeast wind 10 mph.

Tonight- Widespread rain and snow showers. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Lows 31 to 34. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday-Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and rain showers. Highs around 34. South wind 10 to 15 mph.

Temperatures remain warm around the region this morning. They warmed up in the last few hours by several degrees in our mountain zones. While Eaglecrest was mostly before freezing yesterday morning temps have now risen to 34f. Mt Roberts stayed mostly right at freezing yesterday but has now warmed up to 37f. Temperatures should remain near the freezing mark allowing for continued settlement and consolidation. Yesterday the snowpack settled about 3cm which is good for the long run.

We did not receive any precipitation to speak of in the last 24 hours. This is a good thing as we are coming off of 6 days with 6.5\" precipitation. This dry period is allowing the snowpack to drain. Removal of free moisture in the snowpack helps to solidify it over time.

Temperatures are closer to freezing near summit and ridgeline as our gauging stations are off of summit. Over time this is helping lock the snowpack in place. If temperatures cooled even more the snowpack would be even stronger... but this draining and cooling is a start.

The lower mountain zones are still above freezing and a possibility of wet avalanches remains at mid to lower elevations.

With this in mind avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Both natural and human triggered avalanches remain possible but not likely at mid to lower elevations.

Temperatures are forecast to fall ever so slightly in the next 24 hours. The forecast is calling for 6-8\" snow at upper elevations. Winds will be moderate out of the East primarily... starting NE and rolling around to SE as the precipitation increases.

With new snow in the forecast danger levels may stay the same. Although the current snowpack is healing and danger is reduced overall, the new snow will be what to watch for tomorrow.

Tip:

Here is a link to a great article from National Geographic on

5 Tips for Staying Safe in Avalanche Country:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/13/130422-avalanche-safety-tips/

Forecaster:Tom Mattice