Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-01-11 06:25:34
Danger:2
Primary Trend:3
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:2
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

These Taku wind events directly load our urban enviroment in places.

Be aware that danger is increased in windloaded areas.

Be aware that with winds this high snow can deposit in unusual places. If you find new snow deposits from windloading be aware these are areas of increased concern.

It will take a while for this weakness to go away... be cautious in windloaded areas especially as new snow comes in adding stress over the next few days.

Secondary Trend:3
Secondary Probability:5
Secondary Likelihood:1
Secondary Size:2
Secondary Description:

As we see increased windloading one of the concerns is we place enough mass on these deep hard slabs to actually get the slab to a state of instability. This could be 3-8' deep in places.

The odds of triggering this layer are not good and yet should it be triggered these will be VERY LARGE avalanches... Reduce your exposure to large avalanche paths and avoid spending time in them.

Once again although not likely to be triggered these slides on the deeper weak layer in place are possible. Especially in our urban enviroment along the channel.

Also be aware that this danger may be highlighted in areas with shallower snowpack... and although the slides would not be as big this shallow pack makes it easier to trigger as well.

Look at the ground snow interface to see if you have facets in the areas you recreate. If you are seeing large facets and depth hoar recognize this is a dangerous condition.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Increasing clouds. Slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs 21 to 32...coldest in the mendenhall valley. Light winds.

Tonight- Chance of snow in the evening...then snow late. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Lows 19 to 29...coldest in the mendenhall valley. East wind to 10 mph.

Thursday- Snow. Rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation to 2 inches. Highs around 33. Southeast wind 10 mph.

Temperatures remain cool around the region this AM with the tram at 24f degrees and Eaglecrest at 18f. Things had warmed up quite a bit yesterday with the tram coming up to close to freezing at 29f.

The forecast for today calls for as much as a 12f degree warm up over the next 24 hours which is considerable.

Winds remain calm around the region after several days of VERY STRONG Taku Winds. These winds have really created some serious spatial variability in the snowpack. You can find areas with 8-10' of new snow from windloading with various weak layers in density changes in the windslab. You can also find areas with little to no snow from 10\" to 2' with a very different snowpack. Some of this shallow snowpack is showing more faceting in places which could add weakness as more load is applied in the upcoming storms.

We have not seen any new precip in the last week.

This wind event gives us a lot to think of as this next system rolls in. Do you know if your favorite line got windloaded and has weak layers due to density? We saw this weakness as much as 3+' down in the snowpack. Do you know if your favorite line got stripped by the wind and has been faceting for the last several days? What condition will you be dealing with when the next storm picks up tonight into tomorrow?

With multiple weak layers still in place and some serious spatial variability in the snowpack avalanche danger remains MODERATE today. Both Natural and Human triggered avalanches are possible. Even more so after the new snow picks up over the next 24-48 hours. Danger levels will increase as this new system takes place. Be aware out there folks.

Tip:

Here is a link to an article by the Swiss Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research on Spatial Variability. ENJOY:

http://www.slf.ch/ueber/organisation/warnung_praevention/projekte/Schneedeckenvariabilitaet/index_EN

Forecaster:Tom Mattice