Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-01-10 06:14:43
Danger:2
Primary Trend:2
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:1
Primary Size:1
Primary Description:

These Taku wind events directly load our urban enviroment in places.

Be aware that danger is increased in windloaded areas.

Be aware that with winds this high snow can deposit in unusual places. If you find new snow deposits from windloading be aware these are areas of increased concern.

It will take a while for this weakness to go away... be cautious in windloaded areas.

Secondary Trend:2
Secondary Probability:5
Secondary Likelihood:1
Secondary Size:2
Secondary Description:

As we see increased windloading one of the concerns is we place enough mass on these deep hard slabs to actually get the slab to a state of instability. This could be 3-6' deep in places.

The odds of triggering this layer are not good and yet should it be triggered these will be VERY LARGE avalanches... Reduce your esposure to large avalanche paths and avoid spending time in them.

Once again although not likely to be triggered these slides on the deeper weak layer in place are possible. Especially in our urban enviroment along the channel.

Look at the ground snow interface to see if you have facets in the areas you recreate. If you are seeing large facets and depth hoar recognize this is a dangerous condition.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Mostly sunny. Highs 18 to 30. Warmest near downtown juneau and douglas. Light winds.

Tonight- Mostly clear. Lows 15 to 20. Light winds.

Wednesday- Increasing clouds. Chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs around 28. North wind 10 mph.

Temperatures this morning remain cool although several degrees warmer than yesterday. Yesterday morning temperatures were around 16 degrees at Eaglecrest and Mt Roberts Tram Summits. This morning they are closer to 25f degrees. These warmer temps will help the snow over time to settle bond, and heal.

We have not seen any precipitation in about 10 days.

Winds have been blistering for the last 3-4 days. We have seen tremendous wind transport around the region.

Dangers are not widespread... but danger is present in windloaded areas... wherever they may be... Be aware if you are on snow that is recently deposited from the wind event it may be a weak windslab.

Avalanche Danger remains MODERATE around the region. Natural and human triggered avalanches are not likely yet still possible in isolated areas.

Tip:

Avalanche Safety in the Backcountry
The following is a list of some important avalanche safety guidelines to keep in mind while traveling in the backcountry.
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Safety Considerations
Most avalanches start on slopes that are 30 degrees or greater.? If you stay off of 30 degree (and greater) slopes and avoid traveling beneath them, your risk is greatly minimized.
Remember the key red flag indicators:
Recent avalanches? Absolutely and unequivocally no doubt. It's dangerous out there.
Significant new snow over the last 24 hours? Again no doubt: expect hazardous conditions.
Collapsing of the snow or whoomping sounds? Serious instabilities exist in the snow pack. Danger is high.
Cracking running out in front of you? Perfect conditions for slab avalanches. Danger is high.
Sudden temperature rise. Water oils the avalanche machinery and all bets are off. Danger is high.

A reminder: avalanche danger is greatest during and shortly after intensive snow falls. Traveling on or below 30 degree slopes during intensive storms is very dangerous. (Intensive storms are those in which 1\" of snow falls per hour)
Wind moves snow from windward to leeward slopes and can create the same kinds of unsafe conditions created by an intensive snow fall.? Stay off leeward slopes during and shortly after periods of strong winds. Instabilities can remain for long periods. Avoid lee slopes if you can or use extreme caution otherwise.

Watch for the leeward pockets.? In much of interior west, many of the mid and low elevation slopes have a lot of sagebrush showing, but every so often there are pockets?sides of gullies, steep short slopes and back sides of ridges?where the wind has deposited snow.? Plan your route to avoid these areas.? In the Pocatello, Idaho area alone, 6 deaths can be attributed to people being caught in short avalanches that occurred in leeward pockets.

One extremely dangerous time in the mountains occurs when a period of cold weather is followed by a sudden warming trend or rain falling on the snow pack.? Free water in the snow pack lubricates weak layers and often large avalanches result.? Like intensive storms, it is a very dangerous time to be traveling in the mountains.

Heavy trees provide protection from avalanches, but the trees must be spaced within 3 meters of one another.? That's close enough to make skiing annoying.? Sparse trees do NOT provide any more protection than open slopes.

In the spring, big wet, damaging avalanches can occur.? The safest time to travel is in the morning after a cold, clear night when the snow is frozen.? Get off of steep slopes when the snow begins to soften from melting.
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Traveling Considerations
?Traveling alone is risky: two is better, three is better yet.
Use ridge lines, heavy trees, windward sides or low angle slopes (less than 30 degrees) to minimize your exposure.

When crossing suspected avalanche slopes, do so one person at a time.
If the first person gets across a suspected slope successfully, all remaining members of the party should use the same path. (The assumption is that the first person may have avoided parts of the suspected slope that could trigger an avalanche. Another individual setting off on a different path might hit one of the trigger areas. Thus, follow the same path.)

Travel from island of safety (a group of heavy trees, a ridge top, etc) to island of safety.

Don't camp, eat lunch and rest below obvious avalanche paths.

Carry emergency avalanche equipment:? transceiver, portable shovels, probe poles, compass with inclinometer, and hand lens.? At the beginning of each winter season practice with your transceiver.? Know how to use it before you need to use it.

If you are moving up or down a suspected slope, stay to the side.? If an avalanche occurs, the snow may move slower on the flank and allow escape.

Stay out of gullies.? They are natural pathways for avalanches and often fill deeply with snow when an avalanche occurs.

Know what's out there.? Check the avalanche forecast before leaving on a backcountry trip.

Forecaster:Tom Mattice