Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-01-08 07:05:06
Danger:2
Primary Trend:2
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:3
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

These Taku wind events directly load our urban enviroment in places.

Be aware that danger is increased in windloaded areas.

Be aware that with winds this high snow can deposit in unusual places. If you find new snow deposits from windloading be aware these are areas of increased concern.

Secondary Trend:2
Secondary Probability:5
Secondary Likelihood:1
Secondary Size:2
Secondary Description:

As we see increased windloading one of the concerns is we place enough mass on these deep hard slabs to actually get the slab to a state of instability. This could be 3-6' deep in places.

The odds of triggering this layer are not good and yet should it be triggered these will be VERY LARGE avalanches... Reduce your esposure to large avalanche paths and avoid spending time in them.

Once again although not likely to be triggered these slides on the deeper weak layer in place are possible. Especially in our urban enviroment along the channel.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Locally very windy. Clear. Highs 22 to 29. Near downtown juneau and douglas...northeast wind 15 to 25 mph increasing to 30 mph in the afternoon with gusts increasing to 60 mph in the afternoon. East wind 10 to 20 mph elsewhere.

Tonight- Locally very windy. Clear. Lows 10 to 20...except around 27 near downtown juneau and douglas. Northeast wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 60 mph near downtown juneau and douglas. East wind 10 to 20 mph elsewhere.

Monday- Sunny. Locally windy. Highs 23 to 29. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph. Near downtown juneau and douglas...northeast wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the morning.

After two days of blistering Taku winds it appears we are now past the peak of the system and on the downside.

We have seen summit winds in excess of 100mph over the last two days. This has the ability to transport a great deal of snow.

It has stripped the snowpack off completely in places making it quite thin in others. This will allow the temperature gradient between the earth and the cold air to start to deteriorate the snowpack in shallow areas by creating faceting of the crystals.

This morning winds remain considerable with Eaglecrest blowing 40+ and the tram slightly lower (but recognize with winds from this direction the tram gauge is sheltered and reads low almost every time.) The forecast for today calls for continued windtransport and loading.

Temperatures were cold around the region yesterday morning with the Eaglecrest at 15f degrees and the tram at 21f degrees.

Currently Eaglecrest is showing 17f and Mt Roberts at 19f. Temps are forecast to continue rising over the next 24 hours by as much as 9f degrees back up to near the point of freezing.

With two days of windloading and continued windloading today Avalanche Danger is MODERATE. Natural avalanches and human triggered avalanches both are possible.

This wind event stripped the snow in a great many areas. Slabs that were once quite large have now been separated into smaller slabs by re-exposing terrain features. Some areas have no snow and no danger at all... but be aware if you are in an area that has new snow deposited it may be quite weak.

As so much wind has moved so much snow these areas of instability are now more spatially variable. You may not find weakness everywhere but recognize new snow slabs and deposits may remain weak for several days. Some of these slabs may also be quite deep. That would be a major concern if triggered. These have the potential to be deep hard slabs that are VERY dangerous.

Enjoy the sun and get out there.

Use caution out there. Danger remains.

Tip:

Here is a link to a discussion on faceted snow. Enjoy-

http://www.fsavalanche.org/faceted-snow/

Forecaster:Tom Mattice