The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...BECOMING WINDY. RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET RISING ABOVE
1500 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 15
TO 25 MPH. GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 47. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

We have received 27mm of precip at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit in the last 27 hours. This left behind about 24cm of new snow at that elevation. The Mt Juneau Weather Station is showing about 30cm. Things are stacking up quite rapidly and more is expected. The temps have not gone above the freezing point just yet at the tram summit and remain at 30f degrees.

Winds during this event have ranged from 20-50mph. Adding windload to our slopes.

Thane Road had a natural avalanche at 10:55 am. It did not reach the road. But this is an indicator that we have gone into a natural avalanche cycle.

Todays forecast calls for about .85\" of additional precip over the next 24 hours. With rising freezing levels. This should be enough to start more natural avalanches in places.

Todays forecast calls for additional winds as well adding to the wind slab and upside down snowpack.

Avalanche danger is now HIGH. Natural avalanches are likely. Human triggered avalanches are very likely as well.

Please avoid The Flume and Perseverance Trail. Please do not walk or park along the avalanche prone sections on Thane Road. Please also do not walk in the gated sections above the Behrands Neighborhood.

Be conservative. Please avoid spending time in Avalanche zones.

Upside-Down Storm:

Most snow comes from cold fonts, which usually start out warm and windy but end up cold and calm. But sometimes snowstorms deposit denser, stiffer snow on top of softer, fluffier snow. We call this ?upside down? snow. We often call it ?slabby? or ?punchy? meaning that you punch through the surface slab into the softer snow below, making for difficult riding and trail breaking conditions. It also means that we need to carefully monitor avalanche conditions within the new snow because?by definition?a denser slab has been recently deposited on top of a weaker layer, which should make anyone?s avalanche antennae stand at attention. Most instabilities within upside-down snow stabilize within a day or two.

The kind of weather conditions that often produce upside-down snow include warm fronts, storms in which the wind blows harder at the end of the storm than the beginning, or storms that end with an unstable airmass, which can precipitate a lot of graupel within instability showers.