The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS 35 TO 41. LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS 29 TO 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

SUNDAY...SNOW...DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING AND MIXING WITH RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 42. NORTHEAST WIND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

We have received 74mm(nearly 3\") of precip in the last 48 hours. This has deposited 32cm (13\") of new snow at Mt Roberts Tram Summit Elevation (1800ft). That is quite heavy dense snow. At upper elevations it has deposited even greater snow volumes due to the fact that its colder at higher elevations. The Mt Juneau Weather Station is showing 55cm(22\") of new snow at 2400'. You can assume that at our local Mt Summit Elevations (near 3000') there are even greater snow volumes.

This storm event started quite warm with cooling during the first day of it and nearly cm of snow. Yesterdat at the Eaglecrest summit temps rose by 2+c degrees as we deposited another 20cm of snow. You can assume this placed some heavier denser snow on top of the looser lighter snow that was in place creating an upside down snowpack or creating a weak layer between the two.

The majority of this storm event was fairly calm with winds under the 20mph mark and yet yesterday mid day during the tail end of the precip we had winds from 20-30mph and gusting as high as 40 at times. You can assume this placed a windslab on the top of this storm event also building the densities adding to the upside down snowpack equasion and stressing the weak layer underneath even greater.

This precip event started around midnight on the 23rd (3.5days ago) During this event we have seen 4\" of precip total. So the first shot of precip came entirely in the form of rain. You can assume this weakened the snowpack surface and left a slurpee behind as the new snow started to fall. It also weakened the snowpack additionally under this new snow in places. Checking to see how this new snow is bonding to the old snow surface is critical. Also understanding if the snowpack below it is critical in determining what layers you may see come off if an avalanche is triggered.

Todays forecast calls for as much as .75\" of precip over the next 24 hours with temperatures remaining fairly cool.

Yesterday we went into a natural avalanche cycle early in the morning through midday. Many paths such as Thane Road, The Behrands Path, and Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail experienced avalanches. Some larger than others. I am of the opinion that only the lower starting zones released or a piece of the upper paths. I am concerned that additional snow still hangs above these paths and weak layers remain present.

With the precip rates having slowed and the temperatures remaining fairly cool I am lowering avalanche danger slightly today to CONSIDERABLE.

Natural avalanches remain possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near developed areas. Human triggered avalanches are very probable.

Please limit your danger by limiting your exposure to avalanche terrain. Please continue to avoid the Flume and Perseverence Trails today. Please also do not park or walk along the avalanche prone sections of Thane Road. Please also do not walk above the gated sections above the Behrands Neighborhood.

If you head into the backcountry today recognize there are 5 red flag indicators of direct action avalanche danger and ALL 5 are present today. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION if you choose to head into the mountains.

Use conservative route finding travel practices. Please choose your routes wisely. Please limit your exposure to terrain traps, areas above and below cliffs, creeks, gulleys, chutes or depressions. Please also avoid wind loaded areas. Most of our winds during this event were out of our traditional SSE> They switched around at the end of the cycle to the west... So recognize many slopes may have windloads. Avoid windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline.

Be safe out there Juneau and have a great day.

Snowpit tests:

Most of the time we can gather enough information about the snowpack without ever taking out the dreaded shovel. But sometimes the only way to get good information about deeper weak-layers is to grease up the elbows and do some honest work for a change. I personally feel naked unless I dig at least one snowpit in a representative location to at least get the general picture of what?s going on in the snowpack

How to dig a snowpit:

Contrary to popular belief, snowpits don?t have to take a lot of time. My philosophy is that if your feet get cold, you're doing something wrong; I almost never spend more than 10 minutes in a snowpit. Since snow can sometimes vary quite a bit from place to place, I would much rather dig several quick pits and average the results than to spend 30 minutes in one pit documenting every useless detail. We're trying to get a GENERAL, BIG PICTURE idea of what's going on here. Then move on to another location. Often I dig the hole without even taking off my skis or board, but it usually helps to at least take off the uphill ski or take one foot out of the board binding.

First, the shoveling: Get down on one knee when you shovel. Your back will thank you, and especially if you grew up Catholic, like me, it somehow feels appropriate to get on your knees when asking for answers from the unknown. Make the hole wide--about the width of a ski length. And don't dig a vertical hole, like you're going to China, shovel out the downhill side so you have room to work, which actually takes less time in the long run. Just slide the chunks of snow downhill on your shovel without lifting it. This only takes a couple minutes if you're on a steep slope (where you should be) and in soft snow (also where you should be. If not, move to a different part of the country.)

Then get your tools ready. Get out the snow saw. If you don't have one, than go buy one. You can get by without one but you will hate life and hate snowpits and you will quickly quit digging them. Not a good idea. If you're a skier, get a snow saw that fits on the end of a ski pole.

After digging the snow pit (which gives you a lot of information in itself) I like to just dive in and FEEL with my hands. Some people like to use a little whisk broom and gently brush the wall, but don't listen to them. You need to FEEL the snowpack. Run your mittens horizontally across the face of the snowpit wall and get a nice tactile feel for the different layers. Just like an eroded rock outcropping, notice how the weak layers crumble away while the strong layers remain sticking out. Then stand back and SEE the layers too. Dive in and get your hands dirty. Remember that this is not just an academic exercise. This is your life we're talking about here. Just looking and thinking don't work. Crawl around, shove your arms into the weak layers. Feel it, see it, chew on it, smell it--live it. Use as many pathways as possible--BEE the snowpack, as they say. Sometimes I wish I could shrink down to the size of a gnat and crawl around through the caverns inside the weak layer. This is how you know that you have become a complete snow nerd.

Then dust yourself off (if you're not getting snow on you, you're doing something wrong) and carefully smooth the snowpit wall in preparation for the various stress tests you will perform. Make sure it's smooth and vertical. This is very important. Remember, garbage in--garbage out. But good tests will give good answers. Whatever tests you do, they must be done exactly the same each time, so that one can compare one snowpack to another.

How deep to dig a snowpit:

Since it's difficult for humans to trigger avalanches more than about 1.5 meters (5 feet) thick, (unless they are triggered from a shallower spot) I seldom dig snowpits deeper unless I specifically know there?s a deeper weak-layer that may cause problems. If you already know that the deep layers have no worries, then just concentrate on the shallow snow. Each situation is a little different and in time you will get a feel for it. But in general, keep your snowpits less than 1.5 to 2 meters deep unless you know of a good reason to go deeper.

Where to dig a snowpit:

Where to dig a snowpit is probably more important than how to dig one. Choosing a representative location is an art, and art is difficult to describe.

Dig it on a slope most representative of the slope you are interested in but without putting yourself in danger. Often you can find a small representative test-slope--one that won't kill you if it does slide. Or, you can work your way into progressively more dangerous terrain. For instance, if a snowpit on safe terrain gives you a green light, then it gives you the confidence to dig another one on more dangerous terrain. Green light there? Then, move onto even more dangerous terrain, and so on. Never dive into the middle of a dangerous avalanche path without first gathering lots of additional data about the stability of the slope.

Don't dig it along ridgelines where the wind has affected the snow--a common mistake. Although sometimes the crown face of an avalanche may break right up to the ridge, the place where we most often trigger avalanches is 100 or more feet (30 meters) down off the ridge. Avoid thick trees because conditions are often quite different than on open slopes. Avoid compression zones and tension zones. Avoid places where people have compacted the snow.

Bottom line:
LOOK FOR NEUTRAL, OPEN AREAS AT MID SLOPE WITHOUT WIND EFFECTS.

Hot tip:

Use an avalanche probe to find a representative place with average depth. Poking around with a probe can save a lot of time digging in stupid places, like on top of a rock or tree or where a previous party had their lunch.

Many cagey avalanche professionals dig their snowpits just above a tree so they can grab it if the slope does slide. Better yet, tie a belay rope onto that tree and dig below the tree. People don?t tend to ski, snowboard or snowmobile just below trees. I almost always carry a lightweight belay rope and use it on regular basis. Most important, dig lots of snowpits in lots of different areas because the snow can vary quite a bit from place to place. Look for the pattern of instability.

Shear Quality:

What we call ?shear quality? is possibly even more important than the results of compression or Rutschblock tests. Shear quality tells you how much elastic energy is stored in the snowpack. You also hear the terms ?primed? or ?stretched rubber band? or ?sensitive? to describe the same thing that shear quality tells you. It?s difficult to describe what a high quality shear looks and feels like but you will know it when you see it. It pops out like it?s spring loaded and it does so on a clean, planar fracture. It gets your attention. Rate the shear as a quality 1, 2 or 3:

Q1 Breaks on a clean and smooth like it?s spring loaded

Q2 Breaks on a smooth plane but more stubborn, not like it?s spring loaded

Q3 Breaks on a rough, broken plane