Date Issued:2013-04-11
Danger:1
Trend:4
Probability:4
Size:1
Problem:0
Discussion:

TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN
CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 32. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES LATE.

FRIDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 44.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

Temps in the start zones have remained below freezing for the last 24hrs helping to keep our rain laden snowpack locked up. Snow showers left us with about 5cm at the tram, with probably double that at the top of Mt Juneau.

Winds have been from the SW and are just strong enough to create some loading on E-N-NW aspects. The changeover from rain to snow was quick, so the skiff of new snow is not likely to bond well if heated by the patchy sun but sizes of these slides will be small. Since the winds aren't forecast to pick up tonight until the precip drops off I don't expect the hazard to increase too much before tomorrow.

Avalanche Danger is LOW today: Natural avalanches of significant size unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised.

Backcountry Travel is generally safe. Caution is advised on any sunny aspects, and in potentiall wind loaded areas near ridgetops in the new snow over the recent rain crust to 4000ft.

Tip:

TERRAIN TRAPS

Terrain traps are any terrain feature that increases the consequences of getting caught in an avalanche. For example, depressions and abrupt transitions increase the odds of a deep burial, cliffs and trees increase the odds of traumatic injuries, and gullies and canyons reduce the chances of escape.

Terrain traps are a significant and often overlooked hazard. Managing risk through route finding requires a good understanding of terrain traps and how they can magnify the effects of an avalanche. Common terrain traps include:

Abrupt transition where avalanche debris can pile up.

Canyons or gullies that can funnel an avalanche.

Trees, perhaps the most overlooked terrain trap, these cause more trauma related avalanche deaths each year than anything else.

Cliffs, or icefall that can cause trauma to someone who is carried over or through in an avalanche.

Alpine features like crevasses, or bergshrunds.

Forecaster:Chris Eckel