From the National Weather Service:
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 47. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH LATE. GUSTS TO 35 MPH LATE.

.TUESDAY...WINDY. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

Yesterday we saw warming temperatures peaking at 44 and lots of sunshine. Ridge tops remained just above freezing over night, allowing time for the snow to adjust to the warmer temperature regime.

We lost a few inches of snow to the weather, and there were several small loose wet sloughs up high and several glide cracks released on South facing slopes.

During the day we should see over .5? of precipitation in the morning and less sunshine than yesterday, adding moisture to the snow. The rain should start in ernest after mid-day, and there will be a major pulse tonight.

Slightly over 2? of rain is forecast over the next 48 hours starting this evening with rising Southeast winds, driving more warm air and significant moisture into start zones. There are still several buried crusts that could provide an ideal bed surface if stressed with enough weight in water.

Timing of these weather events is key, and any possible avalanche activity would occur later in the day and especially this evening. This will affect all aspects.

Our primary concern today is precipitation, which adds weight and stress to the snow pack. Given that later today the precipitation will be heavy, this morning's avalanche hazard is MODERATE, with an INCREASING 24 hour trend. We should see the bulk of the precipitation tonight, but if this storm front moves in earlier than forecast, the avalanche hazard may be updated.

The lower elevations of our slide paths are melted out, inhibiting slides as they travel downslope.

Avoid using the Fume or Perseverance Trails, especially after mid-day.

Here are a few resources focused on explaining how to interpret the Avalanche Danger Scale. Keep in mind that our scale is focused on Juneau's urban slide paths, and not on recreation.

Utah Avalanche Center has a great 5 minute read: http://old.utahavalanchecenter.org/danger_rating_tutorial

Mt. Washington Avalanche Center has a great read on the development of the danger scales: http://www.mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/899-2/

Check out our own urban scale at: http://www.juneau.org/avalanche/dangerdef.php