The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 29. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 7 TO 15. EAST WIND 10 MPH.

FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND
10 MPH.

We have not received much new snow in the last week. A few inches here and there which gives the snowpack time to settle and bond.

Temperatures have remained fairly constant with a little rise yesterday during the diurnal fluctuation with the mid day sun coming up to around -3-4C degrees. Last night saw good cooling with Eaglecrest going to -12c and the tram to nearly -10c. Eaglecrest had a 10c swing during the day! SPRING IS HERE>

We saw moderate winds yesterday with douglas showing 10-20mph while the winds along the channel were a bit higher. The tram gauge was showing 20-30mph winds but is in the wind shadow of the ridge. You could see from the blowing snow off the ridge of Mt Roberts that winds were higher on the ridgeline. You could also see there was less wind affect on Mt Juneau which is quite often the case with our North wind events.

These north winds tend to load our urban avalanche paths. We saw one natural avalanche early in the winds yesterday morning but did not see much after that. Be aware in places there may have been a wind slab built that is laying there weak and waiting for a trigger.

With cool temperatures in the forecast again today and winds dying off I will post the Avalanche Danger as Moderate and falling slowly over the next 24 hours.

Natural avalanches unlikely, yet possible. Look to the south facing sling the heat of the day as the critical area of concern. Be aware with the affect of the sun the possibility of Point Release Avalanches exists. If a small point release should occur in the area of a weak windslab it has the ability to trigger the deeper slab present.

Human triggered avalanches possible as well. Recognize in areas there are wind slabs present. Also recognize with the diurnal fluctuation and sun present during the heat of the day South Facing slopes may be trigger sensative.

Use extreme caution during mid to late day on south facing slopes.

Be careful and have a great day.

Weak Interface:

Usually, avalanches fracture within a discrete weak layer but occasionally, the fracture can form along a thin boundary between two stronger layers. A common example is when a slab slides on an ice crust.

Weak Layer:

A snowpack layer with less strength than adjacent layers. Often the layer in the snowpack where an avalanche fractures.

All snow exists as layers. Some layers are relatively more cohesive (stronger layers) and others are relatively less cohesive (weaker layers). Like cliffs in the Grand Canyon, if you brush a snowpit wall with your mitten, the weaker layers erode away while the stronger layers stick out. When the snowpack is stressed by rapid changes (e.g. wind-drifted snow, new snow, or rain) this stress can cause the weak layer to fracture. Understandably, most avalanche geeks are obsessed by weak layers. Weak layers involved in most avalanche accidents usually are a ?persistent? grain type such as faceted snow, surface hoar or depth hoar, but it can also be a layer formed within new snow such as low density new snow or graupel. After an avalanche occurs, you often hear avalanche professionals ask, ?what was the weak layer? or ?what did it run on?? The life of an avalanche aficionado revolves around knowing what is the weakest layer in the snowpack and how much stress it takes to make it fail.