TODAY...NUMEROUS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH LATE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

Cooler temperatures begining about noon yesterday have helped to bond this weeks wind slabs leaving us with a fairly strong snowpack this morning. Pockets of instability remain up high in the form of wind slabs but they are unlikely to trigger naturally today.

An additional 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected to fall in the start zones over the next twenty-four hours. Winds will pick up again out of the SouthEast this afternoon and likely be 30 - 40 kts at ridgetop level. There will be steady cross loading along the channel and small naturals will be possible within the new storm layers. However slides large enough to impact the urban zone are unlikely.

Though large slides are not expected it is still a good idea to stay off the flume trail tonight and tomorrow as even smaller slides can be funneled down the creek beds with destructive force.

Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Unstable slabs probable on wind loaded terrain as the storm progresses. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised. Backcountry Travel is generally safe. Normal caution is advised with particular attention to wind affected slopes, and ridgetops facing North.

PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE

Precipitation

In the assessment of an avalanche threat, the amount of precipitation in combination with wind, temperature and the existing old snowpack constitute a central factor. Whether the amount of snow in a snowfall period (1-3 days) is to be assessed as critical or rather unproblematic, depends on the conditions during and immediately after the snowfall.

An amount of 10-20 cm of fresh snow, fallen with strong wind exposure at low temperatures on an old layer of melt-freeze crust can have a highly critical impact. On the other hand, fresh snowfall of 30 cm fallen on a wet layer with no wind and at a temperature of around 0?C at the beginning constitutes no significant increase in risk. Altitude and temperature profile during the precipitation have different effects on the avalanche situation, so this must be critically assessed.

Temperature

One of the basic conditions to be observed during and after the snowfall is the temperature. Cold, hot air and sunlight considerably affect the transformation processes in the snowpack and thus also the avalanche situation. Both the exact temperature itself as well as the temperature trend affect snow bonding in either a positive or negative way.

Considerable warming leads to very critical situations, but its impact can be well assessed.
Considerable warming
--

Slow, moderate warming promotes the settling of the snowpack and therewith the binding between the layers.
Slow, moderate warming
+

Warming during the day and cooling at night causes an ideal solidification of the snowpack, but an aggravation of the avalanche situation must be taken into account due to solar radiation during the day from E to W.
Warming during the day, cooling at night
++

Cold preserves existing hazards and delays the settlement.
Cold
-

Persistent, severe cold promotes the formation of floating snow (ball bearing effect) and surface hoar (covered by a critical weak layer of snow), resulting in a worsening of the situation.
Persistent, severe cold
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