TODAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 29. SOUTH WIND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS AROUND 35. NORTHWEST WIND 5 MPH.

Temps are cooling and the steady precip and wind will begin tapering off today in the start zones. This will be adding strength to the overall snowpack.

We have still had 5cm of precipitation settle on the mountains over the last 48hrs. Some of that has been rain/rime, but most of it has been snow.

While the trend is decreasing for the 24hr period, highest hazard will be this morning with the possibility that small surface releases will step down into deeper windslab layers from the last 72hrs.

Sizes on most slide paths in the urban zones are unlikely to reach developed areas. However it is still a good idea to avoid areas near the Flume and Perserverance Trails.

Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches are possible at upper elevation. Potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised under steep slopes and near avalanche paths.

Human triggered avalanches possible. Backcountry Travelers are going to find conditions that widely vary with elevation. Extra caution is advised with particular attention to wind affected E-N-W slopes, and ridgetops facing North.

SNOWPACK BASICS
The snowpack is one of the 3 key ingredients for getting avalanches.

Depending on the weather and terrain situation, differences arise in the stability of the snowpack (snow slab conditions of \"compact snow\" and \"sliding layer\"). The following applies:
(see Fig 1)

The strengths in the separate slopes can vary greatly.

Different strength patterns in the same slope may result even with the same weather conditions.

Even small changes in strength patterns may alter the overall stability of the slope.

A triggering can be easily caused by a skier via the so-called hot spots (very weak slope areas where virtually there is no connection to the underlying layer).

Then the avalanche triggering may be caused just by the additional load of the skier on the snowpack.

More data is always better. Snowpack tests could provide information on the risk of avalanches: (Fig 2)