TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET INCREASING TO 1700 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...WINDY...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

SUNDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1700 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

Snow continued to fall during the day yesterday with strong winds, great for cross loading the channel slopes, before tapering off yesterday afternoon.

This left us with a fresh windslab resting on top of our recent dusting of colder snow. The slab is widespread, and over a meter thick in places.

Like most new storm slabs; this one was initially tender with easy human triggers during the day yesterday, but only a few natural slides.

The lull in winds and precip last night and this morning give the snowpack a chance to bond a little before the next wave of moisture which starts this afternoon.

This is supposed to be a wet one with about an inch of rain falling in the start zones before tomorrow morning and continuing through the day tomorrow.

If the new storm begins as rain in the start zones it will likely trigger small to medium size slides in the windslab before changing to snow later and reloading them. In this scenario destructive avalanches are not likely to affect urban zones except for the flume and perserverance trails which should be avoided today and tomorrow.

If the new storm ends up being colder than currently forecast then our start zones could see up to 12 inches of fresh snow laid down with more wind creating the possibility of larger, more destructive slides. If that seems to be developing this forecast will be updated by 8pm tonight.

Currently Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE increasing to HIGH after the heavy rain starts today: Natural avalanches are possible at upper elevations, and likely below the rain line. Human triggered avalanches probable. The Flume and Perserverance Trail zones should be avoided today and tonight. In other Urban Zones normal caution is advised. Backcountry Travel is recommended only with extreme caution as most West, East, and North slopes are wind loaded with a slab of varying tenderness.

SURVIVING AN AVALANCHE:
Excerpt from an article by Theo Meiners and Karl Birklend.

Though every avalanche is different, and each avalanche may require a different approach, some common strategies have emerged.

These guidelines apply to Soft Slab or Loose Snow medium to large avalanches without secondary exposure or terrain traps.

Field observations show similar flow patterns for many
avalanches. Failure/release is followed by laminar flow, then as the stauchwall appears there is a violently turbulent zone as the sliding snow and blocks roll over the stauchwall.
The snow then exits this turbulent zone, flows as a mostly laminar flow (depending on the terrain over which it is traveling), and begins its deposition phase. The head of the
slide continues to subduct as it compacts and entrains the snow on slope while rolling forward.

Depending on where you are in the slide, there are different possibilities for escape off the avalanche before you have to go full ride. The strategies are:

1) Ski or board away fast.

2) Self arrest on bed surface.

3) If knocked downhill with skis /snowboard still on, use your skis as brace and spin on hip/bed surface to get skis downhill (like a kayaker using a paddle) and stand and ski away (even if you are in a lot of snow this method works in initial phase).

4) If ejected from skis use back stroke/log roll combination to fight for flank and self arrest on to flank or bed surface. The main thing to do is to fight. Any resistance at all
will slow your progress as slide accelerates away from you.

5) If you are in an area of turbulence, do your best to go with the flow. Maintain white water position with feet down hill. After going through the turbulent area you may emerge before the deposition area. Assist the currents of the avalanche with back stroke action once you are through the turbulent area. Continue to try to back stroke and log roll
to get to the flanks and self arrest.

6) Do whatever you can to avoid head of slide as it is subducting and will pull you down and under the slide. Absolutely do not swim forward of head if you can help it.

7) If you feel yourself slowing down protect your airway and make an airspace for yourself. This is critical because once the avalanche stops you won't be able to move, even if only shallowly buried.

8) Use essential equipment for surviving/escaping capture. This includes a helmet to help prevent a head shot and the resulting confusion, an Avalung to maintain breathing and to
keep you from gagging (thereby helping to prevent panic), the usual transceiver/probe/shovel combination, and of course trusted partners.

Never say die and never go Gumby; you have a lot to teach others from this experience!