The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 25 TO 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

Temperatures have been below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station for the last 24 hours and are forecast to continue falling over the next 48 hours by as much as 10-13 degrees.

We received 33mm of precipitation in the last 48 hours, only 20mm of which has been in the last 24 hours. With temperatures falling the lower mountain snowpack which has been quite moisture saturated over the last 4 days should start to solidify.

The upper mountain may be a little trickier to understand the stability of. We received about 3\" of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. You can assume we received a little more at higher elevations in the region which were cooler.

Over the last 3 days we have had strong winds ranging from 30-55mph for extend periods of time. Look to see additional snow accumulations on lees slopes. Winds were primarily out of the SSE... Look to see pockets of instability on NNW Slopes. Be aware of cross loading as well.

Much of this snow was right at the freezing mark which tends to bond fairly well yet with high winds and considerable precip rates at these just below freezing temperatures be aware you may find pockets of instability.

Avalanche danger is LOW today for natural avalanches. Natural avalanches are unlikely.

Avalanche danger may be closer to moderate today for human triggered avalanches with natural avalanches possible in windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline on lee slopes. Be aware of steep unanchored convex slopes.

With not much precip in the forecast for the next 2 days and temperatures forecast to continue falling avalanche danger is decreasing. The more time we give the current snowpack the stronger it will become.

Wind Loading:

Wind erodes snow from the windward (upwind) side of obstacles, such as a ridge, and deposits the same snow on the leeward (downwind) terrain. Wind loading is a common denominator in most avalanche accidents. And no wonder because wind can deposit snow 10 times more rapidly than snow falling from the sky. Moreover, wind-drifted snow is ground up by bouncing along the snow surface and when it comes to a rest it is often much denser than non-wind loaded snow. In other words, it not only adds significant weight on top of buried weak layers but it forms a slab that can propagate a fracture very easily. Wind can turn very safe snow into very dangerous snow in a matter of minutes. Wind is usually the most important weather factor in avalanche accidents.