Date Issued:2013-01-17
Danger:4
Trend:3
Probability:5
Size:3
Problem:0
Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...LOCALLY WINDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN. MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING ABOVE 1500 FEET LATE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 39 FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 MPH...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

We have had a fairly significant storm over the last 48 hours.

Temps have fluctuated a fair amount during that time. Temps rose by 2c degrees back to the point of freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. Temps are expected to rise midday today with diurnal warming up to about the 2500' level.

We have received 95mm (Nearly 4\") of precip in the last 48 We have received 1' of new snow up high in the last 24 hours and over 20\" of new snow at upper elevations over the last 48hours. This is a lot of moisture for this depth of snow. Almost double the average snow density.

Windloading remains a factor with high winds driving this snow and loading lee slopes on West through North faces.

After the first foot of snow we saw wind drifts reaching nearly 3' we could expect to see double that in certain mountain starting zones.

We are expected to see as much as an additional .6\" of precip in the next 12 hours. This combined with midday warming and driving winds and loading may be the trigger for a natural avalanche cycle.

Avalanche Danger is HIGH at this time.

Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas.

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

If you head out into the mountains today use extreme caution and be very conservative on your route selections.

Avoid windloaded slopes. Keep your slope angle down. Avoid steep convex rolls, unsupported slopes, terrain traps, and skiing above cliffs.

Please do not hike The Flume Trail. Please do not park or walk along Thane Road. Please do not walk in the avalanche zones above the Berhands Neighborhood.

Limit your exposure by limiting your time in avalanche terrain.

As we go into tonight and tomorrow conditions should start to cool off and avalanche danger should start to fall slightly.

This is a fair load and will take time to settle and bond. Time is your friend! Use extreme caution through todays warming.

Be Safe and have a great day.

Tip:

Diurnal (\"daily\") may refer to:
Diurnal cycle, any pattern that recurs daily Diurnality, the behavior of animals and plants that are active in the daytime

Diurnal motion, the apparent motion of stars around the Earth

Diurnal phase shift, a phase shift of electromagnetic signals

Diurnal temperature variation, a cycle of daily temperature change