The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...PATCHY FOG AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 37. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 INCH OR LESS NEAR JUNEAU WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF TAKU INLET. LOWS AROUND 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

Interestingly temperatures split yesterday. While Eaglecrest cooled slightly from -1c to -3c ending up at -2c, The Mt Roberts Tram weather station did much the opposite... Starting at at 0c went up most of the day actually touching -5c for a while and ending up at just below 0c.

So while the lower elevation snowpack in the Eaglecrest Region may have gained strength the same elevation along the channel saw continued thaw and perhaps lost a little strength during its warm spell. After things cool off this lower mountain snowpack along the channel will also start to add strength.

From around 4pm yesterday (when temps had already stabilized at the lower temperatures at and below freezing) we started to receive quite heavy precip for a period of over 13 hours. The Mt Roberts Tram Summit weather station shows roughly 17mm(.669\") of precip during that time. This translated into roughly 15cm(5.9\") of new snow also at the tram. The Eaglecrest UAS site gauge went down around 4pm yesterday so we dont know how much new they saw overnight but we can assume it was of equal or greater value due to the cooler temperatures in place.

Winds yesterday blew fairly strong out of the SSE with Eaglecrest showing spikes over 60mph while the tram was a little less windy only reaching the 50mph mark.

During this wind event early in the day you could see active wind transport. As the snow picked up after dark you should expect to see moderate to heavy wind transport in the starting zones. Look to see slabs having built on W-N faces while adding to the load with new snows as well.

We could have quite heavy pockets of drifting and windslab near summit and ridgeline at upper elevations.

Todays forecast calls for precip rates to decrease and temps to fall slightly over the next 24 hours while winds out of the east are expected to continue from 10-20mph.

Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE today.

Natural avalanches remain possible with some new precip and active windloading. Although possible they are not highly likely and we do not expect to see widespread natural activity. As today dries out and we give things more time to settle danger levels for natural avalanches will start to fall.

Human triggered avalanches are probable.

With active windloading in the start zones all day yesterday and increased loading both with wind and new snow overnight, expect to see areas of instability today.

Choose your routes wisely and limit your exposure to terrain traps, cliffs, and steep convex slopes.

Happy New year and enjoy a great day.

Soft Slabs:

Although soft slabs are defined to be slabs less than 30 percent water weight (300 kg/m3), there is a rather fuzzy boundary between hard slabs and soft slabs. We generally think of soft slabs as composed of new snow while hard slabs are usually composed of old, denser layers of snow or very wind-hardened new snow.

Also, soft slab avalanche debris tends to be soft and powdery while hard slab debris often contains chunks hard snow.