The National Weather Service Forecasts-

STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS...

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 15 TO 21. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.

TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 7 TO 15...EXCEPT AROUND ZERO IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE EVENING NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW.

SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 17 TO 23. NORTHEAST WIND 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MORNING. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW.

Temperatures continue to fall around the region. Dropping around 7C in the last 48 hours. Current temps are 3f at Eaglecrest and 7c at the Mt Roberts Tram. Downtown is hovering around 12f. 10f at Salmon Creek. 7f at the Airport and -1f in the Mendenhall Valley.

Wind speeds remain 30-40mph at the Tram and Eaglecrest Summits. This is still pretty prime windloading speed.

We saw some natural avalanches due to windloading two days ago along the urban paths. We are continuing to see windloading in those areas today.

As this prolonged wind event continues the amount of loose snow available for transport is slowly deminishing.

Natural avalanches are still possible but the danger may be ever so slightly reduced today in the urban paths where there is no additional trigger. On Douglas Island for Skiers and Snowmobilers where you are the trigger to the avalanche danger is still CONSIDERABLE. Human Triggered avalanches are still likely in isolated places.

We have seen some activity earlier in the week giving us a hint that the danger may be isolated to the upper surface levels of the snowpack which can reduce the avalanche size. We also saw some natural activity in the urban paths last week during the bigger snowfall events removing some of those weak layers in places.

The slides two mornings ago were only a small part of the slopes that pose a threat and there is still a great deal of area that could potentially release if the stress strain balance is tipped by this continued windloading.

Today is a good day to avoid The Flume Trail. Today is also a good day not to walk the trails and dead end road spurs above the Berhands Avenue Area.

Please aviod parking along Thane Road through the avalanche path areas. Please also do not walk or jog along Thane Road through this same region.

The avalanche snow debris may not be an issue with these expected midsized powder avalanches, yet the powder blast can travel quite fast. Fast enough to knock down trees and carry debris with is as it travels.

Be aware in the backcountry there will be windloading in isolated pockets that should be avoided.

Remember this is not a complete backcountry forecast.

Any place you choose to ride you should take it upon yourself to dig a snow profile to analyze the layering and make your own determination as to if it is safe or not and which route you should take.

Wind Loading:

Wind erodes snow from the windward (upwind) side of obstacles, such as a ridge, and deposits the same snow on the leeward (downwind) terrain. Wind loading is a common denominator in most avalanche accidents. And no wonder because wind can deposit snow 10 times more rapidly than snow falling from the sky. Moreover, wind-drifted snow is ground up by bouncing along the snow surface and when it comes to a rest it is often much denser than non-wind loaded snow. In other words, it not only adds significant weight on top of buried weak layers but it forms a slab that can propagate a fracture very easily. Wind can turn very safe snow into very dangerous snow in a matter of minutes. Wind is usually the most important weather factor in avalanche accidents.