The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 46. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 43. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

Althought there is rain and snow in the forecast this systems continues to come from mostly south with a slight offshore flow which should block any significant precip.

Temperatures cooled slightly with Eaglecrest summit going back to below freezing temps for the last 12 hours.

The Tram Summit stayed slightly warmer and continues to hover just above freezing.

Avalanche danger is LOW at this time.

With continued above freezing temps along the channel the lower elevation snowpack should continue to clean itself off of the steep open faces, and rocks. Even super steep rock faces on the upper mountain may show a little sluffing during the diurnal fluctuation of the day...

If we should happen to see much direct sunlight today this process may speed up. This has the ability to generate small point release avalanches especially in the steeper places.

Be cautious on south facing slopes later in the day if the sun becomes present.

I would continue to avoid parking at Snowslide Creek along Thane Road. Also be aware the Flume and Perseverance Trail become more dangerous on these sunny afternoons if the sun comes out!

Enjoy another beautiful spring day Juneau!

Density, Snow:

The stability of the snowpack is influenced by many factors, but two of the most important is the strength of the weak layer and the load it has to support. The weight of the snow resting on a weak layer is a factor of the depth of the slab and its density. Snow density can be thought of in technical terms and numbers (% density, kg/m3) but most people have an intuitive feel for snow density, even if you don?t realize it. Snow that is light and billows up in your face while you?re riding is very low density, while high density snow feels thick, heavy, or even wet.

New snowfall has an initial density, usually in the 3-20% range. Once it accumulates on the old snow surface, metamorphism takes over causing the snow to gradually become more dense. The rate at which new snow becomes densifies depends on temperature, among other things. We all know warm weather can quickly ruin light powder snow, while cold temperatures can slow down the densification process and preserve powder for quite some time.

Another important factor to consider regarding snow density is trends during a storm. If the temperature is warm when the snow starts falling, and then becomes colder, we have what we call a ?right side up? storm. The snow is light and fluffy on top and becomes more dense with depth. A far less desirable scenario is called an ?upside down? storm and is the result of increasing temperatures during snowfall. The result is heavy, denser snow on top of lighter snow -- you can see what we?re getting at can?t you? An upside down storm can result in a slab (dense snow) over a weak layer (less dense snow), providing the necessary ingredients for slab avalanches.