The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
AROUND 46. EAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 45.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

Temperatures reached the warmest they have been in the last 6 weeks yesterday and remained over freezing again all night... at nearly the same temp.

Temperatures hit 41f degrees yesterday at the Mt Roberts Tram summit. Only dropping to a low of 39f overnight.

Temps have now been above freezing for over 48 hours at that elevation. This is starting to affect the surface layers of the snowpack, especially on south facing slopes that absorb more direct sunlight during the dirunal fluctuation of the day.

The Eaglecrest summit has been a little cooler but did stay above freezing for the last 24 hours.

Temperatures today are forecast to remain warm. This will continue to erode the bonds in the surface layers of the snowpack.

Yesterday at upper mountain elevations you could see the snow cleaning itself off the trees and steep rocky faces as the bonds simply turned to liquid and the snow slid away...

This has the ability to start point release avalanches especially on steep open faces. Be aware that during the heat of the day things become the most active.

Avalanche danger is MODERATE today.

Natural avalanches are likely. Mostly in the form of point releases. It is important to recognize that these point releases place a tremendous amount of stress on the snowpack and have the ability to step down and propagate into slab avalanches.

Human triggered avalanches remain possible. Especially on south facing slopes and during the heat of the day the activity will peak.

If we should see the rain in todays forecast recognize this erodes the bonds in the snowpack even quicker than the sun itself. Especially after the warm temps have had 2 days to start the process.

Slide sizes are not forecast to be HUGE, yet recognize in places like Thane Road there is still a tremendous amount of snow on the hill and it wouldnt take much to bring a slide down to the road. There is not much transitional area for the slides to slow and stop.

The cornice there is still quite large and overhanging and is also getting weaker with these warm temperatures. If the warm temps continue there is a possibility of failure at that point.

Should that cornice fail there is the possibility that it could be the trigger for a much larger avalanche.

PLEASE DO NOT PARK AT SNOWSLIDE CREEK ALONG THANE ROAD!

Also be advised that the Flume and Perseverance Trails are becoming a little more questionable and dangerous, especially during the later part of the day.

Here is a video of an avalanche that went from a point release avalanche and then propagated into a large slab avalanche.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3JkJU9I2Vw

This is the kind of thing we worry about. There are still multiple weak layers deeper down in our snowpack that remain a concern for these types of events.