The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 600 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATION 2 TO 5 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET IN THE EARLY
EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

We have received 1.2\" of precipitation and 10+\" of new snow over the last 18 hours while the winds blew from 20-50 knots out of the SSE.

Lets keep it simple folks...

AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH AT THIS TIME!!!

Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Todays forecast calls for a touch more warming, continued winds, and several inches of new snow. Dangers may decrease ever so slightly through the day today but will increase again tonight into tomorrow with increased precipitation rates at that time.

One of the bigger problems is that all this new snow is being windloaded into our starting zones and is coming to rest on an ice layer that it will not bond well to the new snow for some time.

Densities started quite low early in the cycle yet have greatly increased. Overall densities are over 12% at this time.

This is an upside down snowpack folks. Placing heavy wet snow on looser lighter snow... You have a stack of bricks sitting on a pop can once again... It may be holding for now... but if you step on the brick... that pop can is going to colapse...

And this brick pile on the pop can is resting on an ice skating rink... How is that for some hi tech avalanche info..

The new precipitation rate for today has decreased slightly which may keep us out of a large natural avalanche cycle... Yet some natural avalanches may have already occured and there may still be more.

But if your heading out into the mountains be aware... The mouse trap has been set... and is waiting for you to step in the wrong place... DONT GET CAUGHT!

Today is a great day to avoid places like the Flume and Perseverance Trail!

Danger is also quite high along Thane road... as the berm is very full and the avalanche track has been filled in and greased by all the other recent avalanche activity...

The Urban paths have a little less danger as there is a little more runout between the bottom of the track and the houses... But danger still exists as it is hard to precisely predict how far these avalanches could run.

There are 5 red flag indicators of HIGH avalanche danger... Today all 5 are present.

Most of the activity should be limited to this 10+\" of new snow. Yet be aware in windloaded areas there may be much more depth in the slab adding to the avalanche size.

If you do head out into the mountains today stick to low angle, well anchored slopes, no terrain traps, no exposure to cliffs, rocks, etc... For that matter... It may simply be a good day to wait it out... give the snowpack time to settle and bond. Tomorrow AM Eaglecrest will be doing avalanche control and the lift skiing will be safe and AWESOME!!!

Have a great day.

Mother Nature often provides clues or Red Flags when the snowpack is unstable.

1. Recent avalanche activity: Recent avalanche activity is the indisputable sign of instability. If you see recent avalanche activity the snowpack is unstable.

2. Wind: Wind creates dangerous slabs; if the wind is blowing or has blown recently it has probably created dangerous wind slabs and increased the avalanche danger.

3. Intense precipitation: Precipitation often increases the avalanche danger. The more snow that falls and the faster it falls the more apt it is to create dangerous conditions. And wet snow or rain falling on cold dry snow almost always causes avalanches.

4. Whoomping sounds or cracks: Cracks in the snow surface and/or \"whoomping\" sounds mean that a weak layer is collapsing and that the snowpack is unstable. This is a sure sign of instability; stay on low angle slopes.

5. Rapid temperature rise: If the temperature is rising; watch out! Often it will be cold powder skiing in the morning and then warm up significantly in the afternoon. This rapid warming can transform fluffy powder into a dangerous slab. This newly formed slab can change stable powder conditions into unstable slab conditions in a very short time. In a settled more spring-like snowpack, if you are sinking into wet snow 6\" or more, the snowpack surface is becoming saturated and wet slides could occur. Roller balls, snow snails and point releases all indicate wet unstable snow.