Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016
| Date Issued: | 2013-04-06 |
|---|---|
| Danger: | 2 |
| Trend: | 5 |
| Probability: | 3 |
| Size: | 3 |
| Problem: | 0 |
| Discussion: | From the National Weather Service: .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 49. Yesterday temperatures stayed cooler than expected up high and the winds calmed down by mid-day, giving the snow pack some additional time to adjust to wind slabs formed over the last 48 hours. Last night about 2.5? of warm new snow fell starting last yesterday evening with very light wind, which added minimum stress to the existing snowpack. Additional light rain or snow is expected. Our primary concern is today's temperatures, which could surpass 40 degrees around mid-day in our urban slide path start zones. There is some uncertainty as to how high in elevation this warming will reach when it occurs, which will have a significant effect on the snow pack stability. These warm temperatures will reach the start zones by tomorrow at the latest. Rapidly rising temperatures combined with the recent wind slab may trigger small to medium sized avalanches. Today's avalanche danger is MODERATE, given that natural avalanching is dependent on an uncertain snow line and with the lower portions of our urban slide paths melted out, slides will not easily run down into the lower elevations. The 24 hour trend is INCREASING due to the temperature forecast for the today and beyond. The Flume and Perseverance Trails should continue to be avoided. |
| Tip: | Quickie Spring Avalanche Refresher: It is still winter up high, but we are all starting to think about spring down a sea-level. With that in mind, here is a brief refresher on spring avalanche hazards. 1. Temperature and radiation balance are important factors in spring and summer. The snow commonly refreezes overnight and softens throughout the day. If overnight refreezing does not occur or is minimal the hazard of wet slides will increase earlier in the day. 2. During clear weather radiational cooling counteracts incoming solar radiation. In late winter and in spring the snow may be stable for days (at least early in the day) in clear weather but develop a wet slide cycle during a warm, hazy, or cloudy period. 3. Indications that wet slides are a potential hazard include penetrating deeper than the ankles and/or sunballs which grow into wheels, penetrating deeply into the snow. 4. Northerly aspects may take longer to stabilize and reach summer stability than aspects which get more solar radiation. This is especially true at higher elevations. 5. While summer snow (firn) is typically very stable, fresh snow may fall any time of year at higher elevations. Winter stability considerations may then apply, but remember that strong solar radiation can cause especially rapid changes in the snow after such a storm. Stabilization is often quicker than in winter, but until it occurs the time of day will be an important factor to consider in route selection and timing. 6. Watch rock outcroppings and cliffs where the heat from the sun will be conducted into or under the snow. 7. Carry beacons and rescue gear, even in late spring and summer. A shovel has many uses, and if you own a beacon it doesn't make sense not to wear it in potential avalanche terrain. Sourced and additional info from: |
| Forecaster: | Peter Flynn |
