The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 39. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 25. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15
MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH NEAR
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 33. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

In general conditions are relatively stable in most areas. I bumped the danger level to moderate this morning for 2 reason...

Although the wind gauges in the region are showing light winds... you can see plumes of snow coming off the summits of Mt Roberts and Mt Juneau. I would assume the ridgetop and summit winds are higher than the gauges are indicating...

This is creating active loading in our starting zones. Windloading creates instability rather quickly. Especially with new snows for transport such as we have seen in the last week. Be cautious in places along the Gastineau Channel

It would not be a bad day to avoid places like the Flume and Perseverance Trail.

Temperatures have cooled slightly over the last 24 hours. We have seen less than 1mm of new precipitation in that time. Both of these things help lead to stability in the long run. Yet the winds are a factor today.

Also be aware that with direct sunlight on the slopes as we get further and further into spring this is having more of an effect on the snowpack. This can erode the bonds in the snow.

During periods of direct sunlight expect to see point release avalanches in places as the snow drops off of trees and rocks and continues downhill. As these small pieces of snow fall onto the snowpack surface be aware that they can continue to develop mass and momentum on longer, steeper, open pitches causing these point release avalanches.

Avalanche danger is generally low today yet be aware in windloaded pockets and on South to Southwest facing slopes later in the day avalanche danger is MODERATE.

Natural avalanches unlikely yet possible in windloaded pockets and on sun exposed slopes, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas.

Human triggered avalanches possible, especially in windloaded areas.

Be careful out there. Use caution and have an amazing day in the sun!!!

Wind Loading:

Wind erodes snow from the windward (upwind) side of obstacles, such as a ridge, and deposits the same snow on the leeward (downwind) terrain. Wind loading is a common denominator in most avalanche accidents. And no wonder because wind can deposit snow 10 times more rapidly than snow falling from the sky. Moreover, wind-drifted snow is ground up by bouncing along the snow surface and when it comes to a rest it is often much denser than non-wind loaded snow. In other words, it not only adds significant weight on top of buried weak layers but it forms a slab that can propagate a fracture very easily. Wind can turn very safe snow into very dangerous snow in a matter of minutes. Wind is usually the most important weather factor in avalanche accidents.

It?s very important to memorize the look, feel and sound of wind loaded slopes.

Always avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow unless you are experienced, and have checked it out very carefully.