The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 43. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY BREEZY. LOWS 21 TO 27. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH...DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 42. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 23. LIGHT WINDS.

We had a 2 plus week period of dry cold temperatures with winds much of the time from 40-80 mph.

Much of the deeper upper mountain snowpack is quite solid in place.

We have received 8-9 inches of snow since the 12th. Much of which is still soft on north faces but has mostly settled out on sunny south faces.

Today we will continue to see the warmest temperatures since February 1st. This places serious additional stress on the snowpack. But as this is day 3 of the same activity should be reduced a little.

We have had light to moderate winds. Some windloading is present.

Spatial variability remains high. The old snow surface has multiple structures currently and the new snow bonding will vary from location to location. Conditions vary greatly from north to south faces as well.

Look to see snow cleaning itself off of rocks and as well as surface sluffing in steep open areas.

We expect to see some small to moderate mid-day to late afternoon avalanche activity. The possibility exists for these avalanches to slide at deeper layers than we have been concerned with in the last few weeks.

In long steep open areas this could entrain quite a bit of mass.

Small slabs may also be present in isolated locations. Some slab activity was sighted yesterday primarily on N-NW faces.

Danger levels are Moderate today do to the sun and diurnal fluctuation with afternoon temps going well above freezing once again in some of our mountain starting zones. This will be the warmest day in 7 weeks.

This melt freeze process we have seen the last few days and nights begins to build strength in the snowpack. But it is important to recognize the snowpack becomes weak during the above freezing, or warmest, part of the day.

Use extreme caution as we get to the later, warmer part of today.

Perhaps it is a good day to avoid places such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail.

Point Relsease - Loose Snow Avalanches - Sluffs:

Loose snow sliding down a mountainside is called a loose snow avalanche. Small loose snow avalanches are called Sluffs.

Loose snow avalanches usually start from a point and fan outward as they descend, and because of this they are also called ?point releases.? Very few people are killed by loose snow avalanches because they tend to be small and they tend to fracture beneath you as you cross a slope instead of above you as slab avalanches often do. The avalanche culture tends to minimize the danger of loose snow avalanches, sometimes calling them \"harmless sluffs.\" But, of course, this is not always the case. Houses have been completely destroyed by \"harmless sluffs,\" and if caught in one, it can easily take the victim over cliffs, into crevasses or bury them deeply in a terrain trap such as a gully. Most of the people killed in sluffs are climbers who are caught in naturally-triggered sluffs that descend from above--especially in wet or springtime conditions.

Sluffs can actually be a sign of stability within the deeper snow when new snow sluffs down without triggering deeper slabs. Sluffs are usually easy to deal with but slabs are definitely not.