The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN
SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 25. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE.

WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR...BREEZY...COLDER. LOWS 14 TO 20. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH.

We have seen 55mm of precipitation and 40cm of snow in the last 36 hours at tram summit elevations.

Winds averaged 20+ mph the entire time along the channel and closer to 30 mph on Douglas Island with gusts into the 50's.

Temperatures warmed by 7 degrees during this snow event. These are all red flag indicators of Direct Action Avalanches.

Winds have died off now but will be changing direction and picking back up this afternoon.

With not much wind or new precipitation in the forecast for today Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time.

Natural avalanches are still possible and human triggered avalanches are likely.

These are dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and good decision making are the rules for the day if your headed out to play.

Recognize areas of great weakness exist and with the addition of the trigger (YOU) avalanches are quite possible.

Today will be a great day at Eaglecrest. But still a touchy day in the backcountry.

Please continue to avoid trails such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail. Please continue to avoid walking and jogging along Thane Road until this new wind slab has had time to settle and bond.

Make your own decisions.

Just because a slope has been skied does not mean it is safe. Don't make assumptions; gather your own objective data and base your decisions on that data.

An avalanche can be triggered anywhere on a slope.
If you have been gathering good data and evaluating the snow in a variety of locations throughout your tour, you will have a better assessment of the overall snowpack stability.

Constantly discuss all observations and test results with your partners.

Don't be afraid to speak up. Your input is valuable.

Don't be so focused on your goal that you ignore obvious clues. Re-evaluate constantly. Adapt to changing conditions.

If you have any degree of uncertainty, be conservative.
You can still have an awesome winter backcountry experience choosing a lower angle slope or different route.

Avalanche Hazard Evaluation Checklist

This checklist is a great way to tie all of your data together to aid you in your decision-making process.

Assigning a red, yellow, or green light to each of the four variables can clear up what might be a difficult decision.

For example, if you are skiing low angle slopes, or green light terrain, all of the other factors can be red because the slope cannot avalanche. Or you can be on a steep slope, red light terrain, but if the other variables are green, go for it! The point is, this check list will help you if you have reached your goal, but aren't sure how to proceed. Stick with the data. Scores are as follows.

Red- Danger, Hazards Exist
Yellow- Uncertain
Green- Ok, No hazard Exists

Ask yourself, Is the terrain capable of producing an avalanche? Then score it.

Ask yourself, Is the snowpack unstable? Then Score it.

Ask yourself, Is the weather contributing to Instability? Score it.

Ask yourself, what are the alternatives, or consequences? then score it.

And finally ask yourself? Should I choose a safer slope???