The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 24. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SNOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3
INCHES. LOWS AROUND 22. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

SATURDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 6 INCHES. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATION 4 TO 9 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOWS 18 TO 24. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15
MPH.

We have received over 10\" of light new snow last Sunday into Monday at tram summit elevations. This new snow has now had some time to settle and bond to the old snow surface.

Temperatures fell throughout the storm and remain cold still.

Winds have been considerable for the last week and continue to load our urban paths yet transport rates have declined considerably in the last 24 hours. The longer this wind event lasts the less snow there is available for transport. So in time danger starts to decrease do to less rapid loading and time for settlement and bonding.

Monday during the beginning of the wind storm there was enough wind transport to start natural avalanches in many areas along Thane Road such as Snowslide Creek and Cross Bay.

Although some of the mass has now been reduced in those areas they could have slightly reloaded do to wind transport.

Also in areas that have not seen any silde activity such as the Berhands Path and Chop Gulley the danger is still present.

Monday the slabs started out as 8-10\" of low density soft slab. As the wind event continued the slab depth grew in areas do to wind transport of new snows into the starting zones. Also slab densities built while this wind event continued. So it has become slightly harder to trigger yet the force of the avalanche is increasing should it be triggered.

A greater concern comes in when we consider what this new wind slab is resting on.

Ths storm cycle started on February 8th. Temperatures rose by more than 8 degrees during the first part of the storm. This created an upside down snowpack with low density snow under heavier, harder snows on the surface. This creates a weak layer. This layer has had more time to settle and bond and continues to gain strength yet remains present. Recent avalanche activity has not shown anything propagating down to this deeper weak layer yet it could become reactive in the future if we see extreme weather.

Throughout last weeks storm we have received 150mm of precipitation which rests in over 80cm of new snows(over 2 1/2')after settlement. That does not take into consideration the windloading as well so in areas the slab thickness could be much greater.

There was quite a bit of natural activity in the first part of the storm removing some of the depth in certain starting zones which is a very good thing. But in areas where there was no activity there is now a weak layer present over 2 1/2' deep without even considering the windloading in areas.

So if we see the avalanche come in the top storm layers of 10+\" and windloading they will be fast avalanches creating a lot of additional stress on the snowpack under them.

This creates the possibility of then tearing down to the deeper weak layers in place. Recognize that although those deeper layers have had some time to settle and bond the weakness is still present.

Should we see avalanche activity down to this deeper weak layer, slide sizes could be quite large.

Recognize some of the factors leading to avalanche are present.

AVALANCHE DANGER IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME>

Natural avalanches are unlikely, and human triggered avalanches are still possible.

These are still concerning avalanche conditions. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Just this week there was a fatality on a MODERATE danger day in Montana.

Please understand with triggers present avalanches are still possible.

Heightened avalanche conditions remain on specific terrain features. Be sure to evaluate snow and terrain carefully identifying features of concern.

Head up to Eaglecrest to enjoy one last sunny day...

New snow on the way for tomorrows events on the hill!

Be safe out there and have an amazing weekend.