The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS 18 TO 24. . NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 80 MPH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDY. LOWS 3 TO 11...EXCEPT AROUND
3 BELOW ZERO IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. LOCAL WIND CHILL 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. HIGHS 18 TO 24...EXCEPT AROUND 4 ABOVE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY...COLDER. LOWS 3 BELOW TO 7 ABOVE ZERO. NORTHEAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 30 BELOW.

Temperatures have dropped 4 degrees in the last 24 hours.

We have seen sustained winds of 20-40 mph for the last 7+ hours. This wind has placed 4cm of snow on our tram snow depth sensor in the last few hours. This is showing active windloading in areas. This windloading can place hard dense slabs of snow on top of the looser lighter snow in some places.

Sundays Mt Juneau Fieldwork showed a great deal of scouring do to wind. Some areas had no loose snow at all. Other areas were showing slab development. What was loose slab formation at the end of last week turned into hard slab deposits Sunday. Tests in windloaded areas were showing very low density snow(fist) under a hard slab(pencil). Stability tests performed in this region showed compression tests with scores of 4(out of 30) and Extended column test scores of 1(out of 30). BOTH VERY WEAK SCORES. Shooting cracks were seen running as much as 10' out from the last point of contact.

This shows us that slabs are in place that can fracture and have the ability to propagate as well. This instability is probably only found in pockets. Yet please recognize that areas of great weakness exist.

Danger Levels are MODERATE at this time.

Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible.

This is not to say that natural avalanches could not happen.
There have been natural and man made releases sighted throughout the region over the last several days. Most of these releases have been in only the top 30-35cm of the snowpack. For Urban Avalanches the sizes are not expected to be great. For Backcountry Avalanches this size of avalanche would still be quite dangerous.

Our current cold temperatures and wind place increased stress on the snowpack in the form of a temperature gradiant and added stress do to windloading. Watch over time to see if the snow at or near the surface starts to develop facets. This crystal type does not support weight well during future snowfalls.

Temperature gradient is a very important in the snowpack because when temperature changes more than about 1 degree centigrade per 10 centimeters, the snow metamorphoses into weak, sugary, faceted crystals, which cause the lion?s share of avalanche accidents. Large temperature gradients usually occur when cold, clear weather causes the snow surface to become very cold, or if the snow is especially shallow?or both.

Luckily, temperature gradient metamorphism is completely reversible; when you take away the temperature gradient, the crystals start to metamorphose back into rounded, well-bonded grains.

Free To The Public!

AVALANCHE COMPANION RESCUE - Skills Workshop Series
EVERY SATURDAY IN JANUARY

Sponsored by
Eaglecrest Ski Area
Juneau Mountain Rescue
Southeast Alaska Avalanche Center

Saturdays in January from 1-3:30 PM

Meet at the Eaglecrest Avalanche Beacon Training Park

Saturday January 8th - Avalanche Transceivers, Single Search

Saturday January 15th- Multiple Avalanche Transceiver Searching

Saturday January 22nd- Strategic Shoveling

Saturday January 29th - Companion Rescue Overview- Live Recovery Exercise

For More information Call Tom @ 209-9207